Will Israel retaliate against Iran. How might Israel react to an attack from Iran, and would it be capable of managing a potential war?
From the perspective of Israeli security, a critical boundary has been breached, but none of the retaliatory choices come without their share of risks.
Israel’s top decision-making body, comprising Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Benny Gantz, a former defense minister and political opponent of Netanyahu, has been in discussions for the past two days, strategizing on how to react to Iran’s unprecedented direct assault on Israel. The attack consisted of over 300 missiles and drones, with most of them being intercepted thanks to assistance from the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Jordan.
Many anticipate that Israel’s response will need to be carefully balanced on two fronts: on one hand, it must take action to show Iran that such a significant display of force cannot go unanswered, but on the other hand, it must consider Tehran’s warning that it will respond with even greater force if Israel retaliates. All potential courses of action come with their own set of risks.
Is Israel going to retaliate? Will Israel retaliate against Iran
Although the damage caused by the Iranian attacks could have been much worse, with only one reported casualty, a seven-year-old girl, Israel’s security and deterrence concerns have still been significantly violated.
The key questions regarding a response revolve around how and when: while statements from Gallant and Gantz suggest that an immediate Israeli retaliation against Tehran is unlikely, Netanyahu has yet to make a formal decision.
The chief military spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, has emphasized that Israel is keeping all options open. “In the past few hours, we have approved operational plans for both offensive and defensive measures,” he informed reporters on Sunday.
Will Israel retaliate against Iran
What factors does Israel need to take into account before it reacts to Iran?
Will Israel retaliate against Iran. Israel must consider three main factors before taking action, according to Raz Zimmit, a research fellow at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies who focuses on Iran.
- Firstly, they need to assess how Iran will react, as Iran has made it clear that any Israeli retaliation will be met with an even stronger response,” Zimmit explained.
- Secondly, Israel must take into account the position of the United States. President Biden aims to avoid escalation and seeks to bring an end to the current round of conflict.
- And thirdly, since October 7th, Israel has been striving to prevent opening new fronts in order to concentrate on combating Hamas in Gaza.
What course of action will Israel pursue?
A direct assault on military or infrastructure targets within Iran would likely escalate into full-scale war, although some within Israel’s security circles, particularly hardliners, might see the recent events as an opportunity to target Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Other potential actions include covert operations, such as cyber-attacks or targeting Iranian assets in third-party countries like Syria. Israel could also opt for attacks on facilities like drone manufacturing sites without claiming responsibility.
Tehran would find it challenging to directly accuse Tel Aviv of such attacks without admitting vulnerability to Israeli operations within its borders.
Could Israel manage a conflict with Iran, considering its ongoing engagement in Gaza?
Analysts and former military personnel believe that Israel would fare better than Iran in the event of a conflict between the two nations, as Israel has been preparing for a multi-front scenario for many years.
However, a broader conflict involving Lebanon’s Hezbollah, a powerful militia backed by Iran, would pose the most significant threat to Israel since the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
A regional war would necessitate vast quantities of weapons, ammunition, and air defense missiles. There have been reports of ammunition shortages in the Gaza conflict, and without the prior warning seen in recent strikes, Israel’s sophisticated air defense system could be overwhelmed.
Will Israel retaliate against Iran. Daily life in Israel would likely be severely disrupted, given that 75% of the military consists of reservists. Critical infrastructure such as power stations, water supplies, and transportation systems would probably be impacted, and the effects on the robust economy would be considerable.
How about Iran?
Iran possesses one of the most heavily militarized forces in the region, with a standing army of at least 580,000 troops and an estimated stockpile of 3,000 ballistic missiles, according to Western assessments.
Nevertheless, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been adamant over the past six months of conflict in Gaza that Iran does not desire to be drawn into a broader war. The Iranian economy and its populace are already grappling with extensive sanctions from the UN, EU, and US.
Iran’s attack on Israel followed the April 1 strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus, which targeted a diplomatic facility and resulted in the death of the highest-ranking Iranian commander since the US assassination of Quds Force leader Qassem Suleimani in Iraq in 2020.
According to Zimmit, “The Iranians decided they had reached their limit. They took a gamble, but they assessed that if they didn’t respond to Israel after that attack, it would undermine Iran’s deterrence.”
Could the United States become involved in a conflict between Israel and Iran?
The result of a potential conflict would hinge significantly on the level of support provided by the United States, Israel’s primary ally.
The US’s resources have been stretched by the conflict in Ukraine, leading to Israeli officials voicing concerns about delays in receiving requested weaponry from the US. Additionally, President Biden is hesitant to become entangled in a Middle East conflict, especially during an election year. The US has stated that it would not participate in any direct assault on Iran alongside Israel.
On Monday, UK Foreign Minister David Cameron mentioned that Western nations were considering additional sanctions against Iran.
