Why You Won’t Know the Election Winner Until November 10!

Election Day is on November 5, but delays in counting mail-in ballots may prevent a clear winner from being declared immediately. Historical trends indicate that results could take days, with projections often made well after Election Day. Factors like close races, state counting procedures, and potential recounts can further extend the timeline for official results.

CONTENTS:

• Election security concerns heighten tensions.
• Key states prepare for election night.
• Election results may take days.

Why You Won’t Know the Election Winner Until November 10!

Election security concerns heighten tensions

Why You Won’t Know the Election Winner Until November 10! As the 2024 election approaches, concerns are mounting over misinformation, voter intimidation, and potential cyberattacks, creating a tense atmosphere surrounding the electoral process. Despite U.S. election security officials declaring the 2020 election “the most secure in American history,” the lingering echoes of former President Donald Trump’s claims about a “rigged” election remain influential.

With ballots being counted and results emerging, misinformation is expected to spread across social media, reviving past narratives of voter fraud and tampering. Reports of alleged voting issues are proliferating, fueled by independent and partisan groups alike. Paul Smith from the Campaign Legal Center highlights that claims of widespread fraud are largely fabricated, noting that investigations into the 2020 and 2022 elections found no substantial evidence of voter fraud. Nonetheless, Trump and some Republicans continue to promote these unfounded claims, leading to new state laws requiring photo identification to vote.

Andrew Romano identifies the “Trump Factor” as a significant concern for election night. Trump’s refusal to accept his 2020 loss to Joe Biden, along with his history of suggesting he could only lose if the election was rigged, raises the possibility of him prematurely declaring victory in key battleground states. If initial results show Trump leading while Democratic-leaning mail-in ballots are still being counted, he may again claim victory, potentially urging election officials to ignore the final results.

Polls are set to close at 11:00 PM EDT in most states, with later closures in Hawaii and Alaska. Historically, winners are announced shortly after polls close in California, followed by concession speeches. However, experts anticipate that results may take longer this year due to a higher volume of mail-in votes, which can delay counting processes. Each state has different regulations regarding when counting begins, which means an early lead might not reflect the final outcome.

Why You Won’t Know the Election Winner Until November 10! There are also fears of voter intimidation and violence on Election Day, particularly with Trump’s campaign planning to deploy over 150,000 volunteer poll watchers. While these watchers are presented as a measure to ensure fair voting, voting rights advocates express concerns that their presence could escalate to unlawful intimidation, discouraging voter participation.

Cyberattacks present another significant worry during this high-stakes period. Hackers from countries such as Russia, China, and Iran have been actively targeting political campaign digital accounts and probing election infrastructure. While 98% of voters are expected to use paper ballots to minimize electronic voting issues, cyberattacks could still disrupt critical systems used by the media for reporting election results.

In anticipation of potential unrest on November 5, Washington, D.C. is reinforcing security at key sites, including the White House and U.S. Capitol, with anti-climb barriers being installed. These precautions are being implemented despite local authorities asserting there is no credible threat. Public anxiety remains high, prompting military experts and local leaders to simulate scenarios to prepare for possible violence or unrest surrounding the election and the subsequent transfer of power.

Key states prepare for election night

Why You Won’t Know the Election Winner Until November 10! Millions of Americans have already cast their votes early, either in person or by mail, with many more expected to vote on Election Day. Each state has its own procedures and regulations for counting ballots. Here’s what to anticipate on election night in the seven battleground states likely to determine the election:

Georgia
Electoral Votes: 16
Poll Closing Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Reporting Expectations: Early and mail-in ballots will be reported in the evening, with Election Day votes following. Smaller, rural counties typically report their results before larger, urban ones. Almost all votes are expected to be reported on election night. Early voting concluded on November 1, and mail-in ballots must be received by November 5. Processing of ballots started on October 21.

North Carolina
Electoral Votes: 16
Poll Closing Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Reporting Expectations: A new law may cause delays in reporting early votes, so initial results will likely consist of mail votes. Early votes will follow, with Election Day votes reported last. Most votes are expected to be counted on election night, but provisional ballots, which may increase due to new voter ID laws and the impact of Hurricane Helene, will be counted later. Early voting ended on November 2, and mail-in ballots must arrive by November 5. Ballot processing began on October 1.

Pennsylvania
Electoral Votes: 19
Poll Closing Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Reporting Expectations: Vote reporting will vary by county. Larger counties are expected to report substantial numbers of mail-in votes shortly after polls close. However, it may take several days to report all mail ballots, as officials can only begin processing them on Election Day. Early voting ended on October 29, and mail-in ballots must arrive by November 5. Processing starts on Election Day.

Michigan
Electoral Votes: 15
Poll Closing Times: 8:00 and 9:00 p.m. ET
Reporting Expectations: Reporting patterns will differ by county. The state usually reports most results by midday Wednesday, but larger counties, such as Wayne County (Detroit), often take until early Wednesday to finish reporting. Early voting ended on November 3, and mail-in ballots must be received by November 5. Ballot processing began on October 28.

Arizona
Electoral Votes: 11
Poll Closing Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
Reporting Expectations: No results are reported for the first hour after polls close. Initial results typically come from early votes and mail ballots received earlier. Later-arriving mail ballots and those dropped off on Election Day may continue to be counted for several days. Early voting ended on November 1, and mail-in ballots must be received by November 5, with processing occurring as they arrive.

Wisconsin
Electoral Votes: 10
Poll Closing Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
Reporting Expectations: Reporting will vary by county. The state generally reports most results on election night, but some larger municipalities may not report their mail and early ballot results until early Wednesday. Early voting concluded on November 3, and mail-in ballots must arrive by November 5. Processing starts on Election Day.

Nevada
Electoral Votes: 6
Poll Closing Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
Reporting Expectations: No results will be reported until all polling places in the state have closed, resulting in a delay for initial results. Nevada will continue counting for several days, accepting ballots postmarked by Election Day that arrive by November 9. Early voting ended on November 1, and mail-in ballots must be postmarked by November 5, with processing beginning on October 21.

Election results may take days

Why You Won’t Know the Election Winner Until November 10! Election Day is set for Tuesday, November 5, but it’s unlikely we’ll know the election winner on that day. The increasing number of mail-in ballots means counting takes longer, as these ballots must be opened and verified. This trend suggests that declaring a winner on election night may soon be a thing of the past. In the 2020 election, it wasn’t until the Saturday after Election Day that networks projected a winner for the presidential race. Similarly, in 2022, control of the Senate was determined on Saturday, while the House wasn’t decided until eight days after the election.

The timing of when we’ll know the winners this year hinges on two factors: the closeness of the election and the speed with which states count their ballots. While we can’t predict how close the race will be, we can estimate how quickly states might tally their votes. Each state has different counting procedures—some are efficient due to laws that expedite the process or a lower volume of mail-in ballots, while others may be slower if they have a high number of mail-in votes and lack fast-tracking laws.

A comparison of how quickly states counted votes in the 2022 general election can provide some insight. The counting pace in 2024 is expected to be similar, although some states have implemented new laws that may alter the speed of results release. A report from 538, based on data from state election officials and Edison Research, outlines when to expect results in each state.

Why You Won’t Know the Election Winner Until November 10! Ultimately, no one can say for certain when a winner will be declared. The timelines for each state are estimates, and unexpected issues—such as human error or technical problems—can cause delays. Even states known for quick counting may take days or weeks to project a winner in closely contested elections. Provisional and overseas absentee ballots are typically counted after election night and can impact results in tight races. Candidates in close contests may also request recounts, which can prolong the process. It’s important to remember that election results are not officially final until they are certified, which occurs on varying schedules across states, typically several days post-Election Day.