Vodafone Idea Poised for a Comeback? Data Subscriber Surge Hints at Market Stability

Vodafone Idea’s active subscriber loss slowed in December 2024, signaling market stabilization. The telco gained 1.6 million data subscribers, reversing the previous month’s 0.7 million decline, and is preparing for its 5G launch in Mumbai, Bengaluru, and Delhi. Meanwhile, Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio saw minimal changes in their data subscriber base. Vodafone Idea’s active user loss moderated to 0.4 million from 1.9 million in November. Market share data showed Jio rising to 40.42%, Airtel to 33.49%, while Vodafone Idea declined to 18.01%. Airtel gained 1.7 million active subscribers, mainly from Circle A regions, while Jio and Vodafone Idea saw slight declines in active subscriber share.

The sector’s total active subscribers stood at 1.06 billion, representing 92.15% of total wireless users. Overall, the mobile subscriber base grew by 2.01 million to 1.15 billion, with urban areas adding 2.75 million subscribers while rural areas lost 740,000. Analysts suggest the impact of the July 2024 tariff hike has mostly settled, though some volatility remains.

Vodafone Idea Poised for a Comeback? Data Subscriber Surge Hints at Market Stability

Vodafone Idea is likely to maintain its subscriber market share as the decline in active users slows and data customer additions rise, according to analysts.

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) reported that active subscriber losses in the telecom sector decreased in December 2024, indicating lower volatility and increased SIM consolidation following the tariff hikes implemented in July.

Vodafone Idea, currently preparing for its 5G rollout this quarter, gained 1.6 million data customers in December, recovering from a previous 0.7 million loss. Meanwhile, Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio saw minimal changes in their data subscriber numbers, reflecting a stable user base.

During Vodafone Idea’s December quarter earnings call, CEO Akshaya Moondra noted a rise in data subscriber additions as the company continues strengthening its 4G network and readies its 5G services. The telco has been gradually deploying 5G sites in key areas like Mumbai, leading up to its commercial launch in cities such as Mumbai, Bengaluru, and Delhi, with further expansions planned.

Despite progress in data subscriber growth, Vodafone Idea still faces challenges, particularly a declining active user base. However, the loss moderated to 0.4 million in December, significantly improving from the 1.9 million decline in the previous month. Analysts at Jefferies suggest that this trend, combined with rising data subscriber numbers, could slow the pace of market share gains for Bharti Airtel and Jio.

Market share data for December showed Jio leading at 40.42% (up from 40.15% in November), followed by Airtel at 33.49% (November: 33.45%), while Vodafone Idea’s share dropped to 18.01% from 18.19%. While both Jio and Vodafone Idea lost active subscribers, Airtel saw a net increase of 1.7 million, mainly in Circle A regions. Consequently, Airtel’s share of active subscribers rose to 36% (+17 basis points), whereas Jio and Vodafone Idea saw slight declines to 42% (-14 basis points) and 16.6% (-3 basis points), respectively.

The sector’s total active subscriber base reached 1.06 billion in December, making up 92.15% of total wireless users, with an overall decline of 0.29 million. Analysts believe that while the impact of the July 2024 tariff hikes has mostly stabilized, some fluctuations persist.

Trai data also showed that the total mobile subscriber base grew by 2.01 million in December, reaching 1.15 billion. Urban markets led the growth with 2.75 million new subscribers, while rural areas saw a decline of 740,000 users. Analysts suggest that the increase in urban subscribers reflects the growing demand for high-speed connectivity, driven by digital transformation, remote work, and online services. Meanwhile, the decline in rural areas may be attributed to SIM consolidation, migration trends, and affordability concerns following the tariff hikes. Despite this disparity, telecom operators are expected to focus on expanding their network coverage and enhancing service quality in both urban and rural markets to maintain long-term subscriber growth.