Top 5 Market Movers as Stocks Brace for Presidential Election Stock futures saw minimal movement on Monday as investors awaited the much-anticipated U.S. presidential election. S&P 500 futures rose by less than 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures dipped slightly, also less than 0.1%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 36 points, or around 0.1%.

Nvidia’s stock rose by 2% in premarket trading after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced on Friday that the chipmaker would be replacing Intel in the 30-member Dow. This change, set to take effect at the end of the week, highlights Nvidia’s impressive gains as it continues to excel amid the AI boom, while Intel has struggled. Nvidia shares have surged by 173% this year, whereas Intel’s value has more than halved.

The outcome of Tuesday’s election could significantly impact the market’s year-end performance. According to an NBC News poll, the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is tightly contested. However, the market’s future may depend even more on the balance of power in Congress. A split control of the House and Senate would likely maintain the current situation, while a unified Republican or Democratic government could lead to new fiscal policies or tax reforms.

Many in the financial sector view the election as a key hurdle for the market’s potential rally. Michael Zezas, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, noted that while the election is crucial, navigating the noise with patience and strategy will be essential for investors.

Top 5 Market Movers as Stocks Brace for Presidential Election  In addition to election developments, Wall Street is also focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicates a 96% probability of a rate cut at the end of the central bank’s meeting, following a significant 50 basis point cut in September. Investors will closely watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary for insights into future monetary policy.

Earnings season continues, with approximately 20% of S&P 500 companies set to report results in the coming week. FactSet data shows that about 70% of the companies that have reported so far have exceeded expectations. Notable names reporting this week include Super Micro Computer, Moderna, CVS Health, Qualcomm, and Wynn Resorts.

The month of November began on a strong note for stocks, with technology giants, including Amazon, driving the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 higher by 0.8% and 0.4%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by nearly 289 points, equating to a 0.7% increase.

Stocks mixed; Nvidia boosts premarket

Top 5 Market Movers as Stocks Brace for Presidential Election  The major U.S. stock indexes showed mixed movements in premarket trading on Monday as Wall Street anticipated the presidential election set for Tuesday and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate announcement on Thursday. Nvidia’s stock rose following news of its addition to the Dow 30.

Before markets opened, Dow Jones futures slipped by 0.1% compared to fair value, while S&P 500 futures increased by 0.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures saw a slight decline in premarket action. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.28% early Monday, and oil prices surged by 3%, with West Texas Intermediate futures trading around $71.60 per barrel after OPEC+ announced a delay in increasing output by a month.

In ETFs, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) edged down, while the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) gained 0.1% before the opening bell. On Friday, S&P Dow Jones Indices revealed that Nvidia would replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Sherwin-Williams would take the place of Dow Inc., effective Friday, Nov. 8.

Nvidia shares climbed nearly 2% in premarket trading, building on a 2% rebound from Friday. The stock remains below a buy point of 140.76 within a consolidation phase, with its third-quarter earnings report due Nov. 20. In contrast, Intel shares dropped by 1.6%, Sherwin-Williams rose 5%, and Dow Inc. fell 0.6%.

This week, investor focus is on the presidential election, which remains too close to call. The Fed’s interest rate decision on Thursday is also significant, with markets predicting a 25-basis-point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting comments are expected to influence the market further.

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.7%, the S&P 500 rose 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.8%. During Friday’s *IBD Live* show, the team discussed current market conditions and investment strategies.

Top stocks to monitor include Costco Wholesale, GoDaddy, and MercadoLibre. Among prominent Dow components are Amazon, Apple, Goldman Sachs, and Microsoft. Goldman Sachs shares remained above a buy point of 517.26, according to MarketSurge, while Costco’s stock showed a flat base with a buy point of 923.83 but threatened its 50-day moving average.

Top 5 Market Movers as Stocks Brace for Presidential Election  GoDaddy, attempting to surpass a 166.17 cup-with-handle buy point, slipped 2.1% on Friday but edged up 0.5% in premarket trading Monday. MercadoLibre shares, forming a flat base at a 2,161.73 buy point and trading near the 50-day average, were slightly higher ahead of its Wednesday earnings report.

Among the “Magnificent Seven,” Alphabet fell 0.3% in premarket trading, forming a cup base with a 191.75 entry. Meta Platforms continued to retreat toward its 50-day moving average, losing nearly 1%.

Tesla recently broke past a 264.86 buy point in a cup-with-handle formation but fell below that level last week and declined by 1.5% Monday.

In Dow Jones leaders, Amazon’s stock dropped 0.9% after strong gains last week that pushed it above a 195.37 buy point. Apple, which closed last week below its 50-day line after earnings, fell 0.7% Monday. Microsoft shares, which also fell below their 50-day line after recent earnings, slipped 0.2% in premarket trading.

Markets cautious; election, Fed await

Top 5 Market Movers as Stocks Brace for Presidential Election  U.S. stocks were poised for a flat opening on Monday as traders refrained from making significant moves ahead of a crucial week featuring the presidential election and an anticipated rate cut from the Federal Reserve. According to a recent poll, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris held a lead in Iowa ahead of Tuesday’s election, leading to a decline in “Trump trades” and a pullback in the dollar, bond yields, and bitcoin.

Stocks seen as tied to former President Donald Trump’s potential win showed mixed premarket activity. The 10-year Treasury yield eased from recent highs, reducing pressure on the broader stock market. Trump Media & Technology Group reversed initial losses to rise 1%, while Phunware, which developed apps for Trump’s 2020 campaign, fell 3.7%.

Harris’ odds improved across several betting platforms, with PredictIT showing a 53-cent contract for a Harris win, slightly higher than Trump’s 52 cents. Michael Reynolds, vice president of Investment Strategy at Glenmede, stated, “This is the biggest event for markets this year… but we think it’s wisest not to make big investment bets.”

Dow E-minis were down 17 points (0.04%), S&P 500 E-minis rose 6.75 points (0.12%), and Nasdaq 100 E-minis increased by 16.5 points (0.08%). The winner of the presidential race might not be confirmed for days post-election, potentially resulting in volatile market conditions as investors seek clarity on policy outcomes. Reynolds added that while post-election volatility usually diminishes once the market understands the new landscape, current uncertainties are considerable.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures expected market volatility, stood at 22.38, above its 30-day average of 19.44 but below the 31.8 to 41 range it had reached before the 2020 election. Investors continued to anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in November, with the decision expected on Thursday. Friday’s weaker-than-expected October nonfarm payroll data did not significantly shift rate cut expectations.

Last week, all three major indexes posted losses due to mixed earnings reports from large tech companies. Nvidia’s shares jumped 2% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced it would replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Intel shares fell 1.5%.

Marriott International dropped 2.1% after lowering its profit forecast for 2024, citing weaker domestic travel demand in the U.S. and China. Constellation Energy fell 7.6% after its earnings report, while Talen Energy declined 9% after regulators rejected an amended agreement for an Amazon data center tied to a nuclear plant in Pennsylvania.

U.S. factory orders data for September were scheduled for release at 10:00 a.m. ET.