The Virtual Pivot: Decoding Modi’s ASEAN No-Show and the Delicate Dance of Global Diplomacy 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to participate virtually in the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur, officially due to the ongoing Deepavali celebrations, represents a strategically layered diplomatic move that balances domestic priorities with complex geopolitical calculations.

While honoring a major cultural festival strengthens his domestic political narrative and allows focus on the Bihar elections, the decision also enables India to sidestep a potentially volatile and unpredictable face-to-face meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, with whom relations have been strained by trade tariffs and public disagreements over mediation claims.

By sending External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, India reaffirms its commitment to ASEAN as a cornerstone of its Act East Policy, demonstrating that the nation is adeptly using the format of its engagement to maintain substantive regional ties while cautiously managing a challenging bilateral relationship and asserting its strategic autonomy.

The Virtual Pivot: Decoding Modi’s ASEAN No-Show and the Delicate Dance of Global Diplomacy 

In the meticulously choreographed world of international diplomacy, a sudden change in a leader’s travel plans is rarely just a scheduling conflict. It’s a signal, a subtle recalibration of priorities, and a story waiting to be decoded. The recent announcement that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will participate virtually in the 47th ASEAN-India Summit, forgoing the trip to Kuala Lumpur, is one such moment—a decision layered with domestic symbolism, geopolitical nuance, and the ever-present shadow of a mercurial American president. 

While the official reason, conveyed warmly by Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim, is the “ongoing Deepavali celebrations,” the move invites a deeper examination of India’s current diplomatic tightrope walk. This isn’t merely about a festival; it’s a narrative about India’s assertive place in a complex world, the unfinished business of a turbulent US relationship, and the art of diplomatic messaging in the 21st century. 

The Stated Reason: Deepavali as a Diplomatic and Domestic Anchor 

On the surface, Prime Minister Modi’s decision to remain in India for Deepavali is politically astute and culturally resonant. The festival of lights is not just a religious observance; it is a core part of India’s cultural fabric. By publicly prioritizing this national celebration over a foreign tour, Modi sends a powerful message to the domestic audience. It reinforces his government’s emphasis on cultural nationalism and positions him as a leader in tune with the country’s traditions. 

This is particularly significant in the context of the ongoing Bihar election campaign. The political home front always requires a leader’s attention, and being present in the country during a major festival allows for greater flexibility and visibility in the crucial final stretches of campaigning. The government can frame this as a leader honoring his people’s heritage while simultaneously managing state affairs—a win-win in domestic political optics. 

Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim’s graceful public acceptance of the reason further validates it on the international stage. His statement on ‘X’ respecting Modi’s decision and extending Deepavali greetings effectively neutralizes any potential diplomatic slight, turning it into a moment of cross-cultural courtesy. 

The Geopolitical Subtext: The Elephant in the Room Named Trump 

However, to view this decision solely through a domestic lens would be to ignore the significant geopolitical undercurrents. The East Asia Summit in Kuala Lumpur was slated to be a diplomatic marquee event, drawing leaders from across the Indo-Pacific, including U.S. President Donald Trump. For observers of India-US relations, this presented a critical, and perhaps awkward, opportunity for a Modi-Trump meeting. 

Since August 7, 2025, when President Trump imposed punitive 50% tariffs on India over its continued purchase of Russian crude oil, the relationship has been navigating choppy waters. High-level phone calls have persisted, but the substance has been fraught with public disagreement. The most glaring example is Trump’s repeated, and unsubstantiated, claim that he mediated an end to the May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict—a claim Indian officials have pointedly refused to confirm. 

The official readouts from their recent Deepavali phone call were a study in diplomatic dissonance. Indian sources maintained the conversation was cordial and focused on broad ties, explicitly denying that Pakistan was discussed. President Trump, meanwhile, told an audience of Indian-Americans that the call covered the trade deal, Russian oil, and “no war with Pakistan.” This public divergence on a sensitive national security issue creates a minefield for any face-to-face meeting. 

A Modi-Trump handshake in Kuala Lumpur would have been instantly dissected by the global media. Would it be warm or frosty? Would they hold a joint press conference where Trump might again veer into unscripted and contentious claims? For an Indian government that prizes strategic autonomy and controlled messaging, the unpredictability of an in-person encounter with Trump may have been a risk not worth taking. Opting for a virtual appearance allows India to maintain engagement with the crucial ASEAN bloc while sidestepping a potentially high-stakes, and potentially embarrassing, bilateral moment with the US. 

ASEAN and India’s “Act East” Pillar: A Commitment Unshaken 

It is crucial to separate the bilateral complexities with the US from India’s steadfast commitment to ASEAN. The Ministry of External Affairs was quick to reaffirm that “ASEAN is a key pillar of our Act East Policy and our Indo-Pacific vision.” By dispatching External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar to lead the delegation, India is signaling that its engagement remains at the highest operational level. 

The choice of Jaishankar, a seasoned diplomat and a central architect of India’s contemporary foreign policy, is telling. It demonstrates that India is not downgrading its participation but rather adapting its format. His presence ensures that India’s voice will be heard in the critical discussions on regional security, trade, and connectivity that define the East Asia Summit. 

This virtual-physical hybrid model, normalized during the pandemic, offers a pragmatic solution. It allows Modi to deliver India’s strategic message directly to the ASEAN leadership through a digital address, while Jaishankar handles the granular, on-the-ground diplomacy. This approach safeguards the substance of the relationship, even if it forgoes the symbolism of the prime minister’s physical presence. 

A Pattern of Strategic Avoidance? 

This incident does not occur in a vacuum. It follows another notable absence: President Trump’s earlier invitation to Prime Minister Modi for the Sharm el-Sheikh peace summit on Gaza, which India chose to represent with Minister of State Kirti Vardhan Singh instead. While each decision has its own merits, a pattern begins to emerge of India cautiously managing direct, high-level exposure with the Trump administration in multifaceted international forums. 

This isn’t necessarily a policy of isolation; it is one of calculated engagement. India continues to negotiate a trade pact with the US and values the strategic partnership deeply. However, under a US administration that frequently employs transactional and public diplomacy, New Delhi seems to be opting for channels that offer more control and less public spectacle. 

Conclusion: The New Grammar of Diplomatic Signaling 

Prime Minister Modi’s decision to go virtual for the ASEAN meet is a masterclass in modern diplomatic signaling. On one hand, it leverages a cultural event to strengthen domestic political narratives. On the other, it serves as a sophisticated tool for geopolitical maneuvering, allowing India to uphold its core regional commitments while deftly avoiding a bilateral encounter fraught with unpredictability. 

The move underscores a critical evolution in statecraft: in today’s interconnected world, not showing up can be as powerful a statement as showing up. It reflects a India that is increasingly confident in setting the terms of its engagement, prioritizing strategic autonomy, and navigating the global stage with a blend of cultural pride and pragmatic caution. The lights of Deepavali may have kept Modi in New Delhi, but the shadows they cast extend all the way to Kuala Lumpur and beyond, illuminating the complex and delicate dance of 21st-century diplomacy.