The Shadowy Militia Shaping Gaza’s Future: Israel’s Gamble and the Man Leading It 

Ghassan al-Duhaini’s rise to lead the Israeli-backed Popular Forces militia following his predecessor’s death exemplifies Israel’s risky strategy of fostering “alternative governance” in Gaza, a move that unfolds alongside a fragile ceasefire still marked by violence and a deepening humanitarian crisis where over a million remain displaced, children suffer widespread trauma, and the systematic destruction of olive trees—a vital source of livelihood and a profound cultural symbol—epitomizes the ongoing erosion of Palestinian identity and survival amidst political gambits and military experiments.

The Shadowy Militia Shaping Gaza’s Future: Israel’s Gamble and the Man Leading It 

In the rubble-strewn streets of Rafah, a new power broker has emerged—one who walks with Israeli approval but remains a wanted man in the eyes of Hamas, embodying the dangerous complexity of Gaza’s uncertain future. 

In the shattered landscape of southern Gaza, a new chapter is unfolding in the already complex story of the Israel-Hamas conflict. As the world’s attention focuses on fragile ceasefire negotiations and the promised return of the last Israeli hostage’s remains, a less visible but equally significant power shift is occurring in the streets of Rafah. Ghassan al-Duhaini, a 39-year-old former Palestinian Authority officer with ties to a group ideologically aligned with ISIL, has assumed leadership of the Israeli-backed Popular Forces militia. His rise follows the violent death of his predecessor, Yasser Abu Shabab, and signals the continuing Israeli experiment with creating “alternative governance” in Gaza—a strategy that human rights organizations warn is unfolding alongside ongoing violations that threaten Palestinian survival. 

The story of al-Duhaini and the militia he commands is more than a simple tale of succession. It represents a dangerous gamble in Israel’s security strategy, unfolds against the backdrop of what Amnesty International calls a continuing genocide despite the ceasefire, and intersects with the profound daily struggles of Palestinians in Gaza. This includes over a million displaced people, a generation of traumatized children, and the systematic destruction of a centuries-old cultural identity symbolized by the uprooting of olive trees. 

The Making of a Militia Commander: Ghassan al-Duhaini 

Ghassan al-Duhaini is not a newcomer to Gaza’s complex security landscape. Born in Rafah on October 3, 1987, he belongs to the extensive Tarabin Bedouin tribe—the same tribe as his predecessor, Yasser Abu Shabab. His career path reflects the fragmented reality of Palestinian security forces and militant groups. Before assuming leadership of the Popular Forces, al-Duhaini served as a first lieutenant in the Palestinian Authority security forces until approximately 2007, when he reportedly joined Jaysh al-Islam (the Army of Islam), a Gaza-based armed faction with ideological ties to ISIL (ISIS). 

Table: Ghassan al-Duhaini’s Background and Affiliations 

According to Palestinian media sources, despite being officially second-in-command, al-Duhaini has long been the Popular Forces’ de facto operational leader, with his age and experience making him the real power behind the younger, more publicly visible Abu Shabab. His rise to formal command was swift and strategically communicated. Following Abu Shabab’s death on December 4, 2025, reportedly during a family dispute mediation in which al-Duhaini was also injured, the militia announced him as its new commander on its official Facebook page the next day. He promptly appeared in a video, dressed in military fatigues and walking among masked fighters, sending a clear message of continuity. 

The Israeli Experiment: Creating “Alternative Governance” 

The Popular Forces militia represents what Israeli newspaper Maariv described in June as a “pilot project” conceived by Israel’s intelligence agency, Shin Bet. According to the report, Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar advised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to enlist and arm the group to test whether it could impose a form of “alternative governance” to Hamas in a small, contained area of Rafah. The militia, estimated to have between 100 and 300 fighters, operates primarily in eastern Rafah near the Karem Abu Salem crossing—currently the only entry point for humanitarian aid into Gaza—with a second unit stationed in western Rafah. 

This Israeli-backed force moves “only metres from Israeli military sites” with direct Israeli oversight. However, the group’s activities have drawn severe criticism. Security sources told Al Jazeera Arabic that the Israeli army oversaw the arming of Abu Shabab and that he led “criminal gangs specialising in intercepting aid convoys coming from the [Karem Abu Salem] crossing in southern Gaza and firing on civilians”. An internal United Nations memo in late 2024 identified Abu Shabab as a central figure behind the systematic looting of humanitarian aid entering Gaza. 

Table: The Popular Forces Militia at a Glance 

Al-Duhaini has embraced this anti-Hamas mandate with defiant rhetoric. In an interview with Israel’s Channel 12, he asked: “Why would I fear Hamas when I am fighting Hamas? I fight them, arrest their people, seize their equipment … in the name of the people and the free”. His social media presence reinforces this stance, featuring videos of militia members capturing Hamas fighters in tunnels and posts beside what appear to be bodies of “eliminated” Hamas members. 

A Fragile Ceasefire and Continuing Suffering 

The rise of al-Duhaini and the Popular Forces occurs against the backdrop of what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called an imminent “second phase” of the ceasefire. This phase, based on U.S. President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan, theoretically involves Israel further withdrawing troops, Hamas disarming, the deployment of an international security force, and the establishment of a transitional Palestinian authority. However, the reality on the ground tells a different story. 

According to Gaza’s Health Ministry, Israeli attacks since the ceasefire began have killed at least 377 Palestinians (figures vary slightly between reports). Israel maintains troops across approximately 54-58% of Gaza, establishing what Israeli military Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir calls a “new border” along the “Yellow Line”. Amnesty International, in a November briefing, asserted that “Israel’s genocide against Palestinians in Gaza continues unabated despite ceasefire,” arguing that while the scale of attacks has reduced, there has been “no meaningful change in the conditions Israel is inflicting”. 

The humanitarian situation remains desperate. While aid entry has increased slightly, it remains “far below what was agreed” in ceasefire terms and insufficient for Gaza’s needs. The United Nations reports that households have gone from one meal per day in July to two currently, but dietary diversity remains critically low with nutritious foods largely inaccessible. Approximately one million Palestinians remain displaced, living in 862 sites across Gaza, with overcrowding creating particular dangers for women, children, and people with disabilities. 

Perhaps most alarmingly, the psychological toll on Gaza’s children has reached catastrophic levels. UN assessments indicate that 93 percent of children exhibit aggressive behavior, 90 percent are violent toward younger children, and 86 percent show signs of sadness and withdrawal. These traumatized children represent the human dimension often missing from discussions of militia politics and ceasefire negotiations. 

The Symbolism of Survival: Olives and Palestinian Identity 

Amidst the political maneuvering and militia formation, a more fundamental struggle continues—the fight to preserve Palestinian identity and livelihood. Few symbols capture this struggle more powerfully than the olive tree, which represents both economic survival and cultural resistance. 

In Palestine, between 80,000 and 100,000 families rely on olives and olive oil as primary or secondary income sources, with the industry contributing approximately 14% to the local economy and accounting for 70% of fruit production. The olive harvest is more than an agricultural event—it is a cultural tradition deeply embedded in Palestinian life, connecting families to ancestors through trees that can live for centuries, even millennia. 

Tragically, this vital source of sustenance and cultural identity faces systematic destruction. During the annual harvest season, observers report Israeli settlers “attacking Palestinian villages on an almost daily basis, beating farmers, spraying crops with chemicals and uprooting olive trees by the hundreds”. The International Committee of the Red Cross documented over 9,300 trees destroyed in the West Bank between August 2020 and August 2021 alone. Palestinian farmers have responded by planting approximately 10,000 new olive trees each year—a testament to resilience in the face of systematic eradication. 

This destruction of agricultural livelihood connects directly to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where Israel’s “systematic displacement of Palestinians from fertile lands has continued unabated”. With farming land destroyed, access to the sea prohibited, and humanitarian aid severely restricted, Palestinians are left “virtually totally deprived of independent access to forms of sustenance”. 

An Uncertain Future 

The complex interplay between these elements—a shadowy militia rising with Israeli support, a fragile ceasefire punctuated by continued violence, a profound humanitarian crisis, and the cultural struggle symbolized by the olive tree—paints a disturbing picture of Gaza‘s present and future. 

Ghassan al-Duhaini represents a new model of local strongman, one whose authority derives from Israeli backing rather than popular support or ideological legitimacy. His background—spanning Palestinian Authority security, an ISIL-aligned group, and alleged criminal activity—reflects the fragmented, desperate landscape from which such figures emerge. While he pledges to continue the “war on terrorism” against Hamas, his group stands accused of terrorizing civilians and looting the aid upon which survival depends. 

Meanwhile, the international community faces what The Economist calls a “zombie ceasefire“—a temporary arrangement with disturbing potential to become permanent stagnation. With Netanyahu focused on political survival, Hamas offering only to discuss “freezing or storing” weapons rather than disarming, and the international community showing signs of easing pressure on Israel, the path to genuine resolution appears increasingly elusive. 

In this uncertain landscape, the Palestinian people continue their daily struggle for survival—navigating checkpoints manned by militias like al-Duhaini’s, searching for food amid restricted aid, tending to traumatized children, and planting olive trees where others have been uprooted. Their resilience forms the human backdrop against which geopolitical strategies are tested and militia leaders rise and fall—a reminder that beyond the politics of ceasefires and “alternative governance” experiments, the fundamental questions of justice, dignity, and survival remain unanswered. 

Conceptual Map: The Web of Actors and Issues in Gaza’s Current Reality 

Israeli Government
├── Supports Popular Forces as “alternative governance” experiment
├── Maintains troops on 54-58% of Gaza despite ceasefire
└── Faces accusations of ongoing genocide from human rights groups

Popular Forces Militia
├── Led by Ghassan al-Duhaini (successor to Yasser Abu Shabab)
├── Estimated 100-300 fighters based in Rafah
├── Accused of looting aid and attacking civilians
└── Presents itself as anti-Hamas “counterterrorism” force

Hamas
├── Lists al-Duhaini among most wanted figures
├── Attempted to assassinate him twice
├── Discussing “freezing” weapons for ceasefire phase two
└── Rejects foreign guardianship of Gaza

Palestinian Civilians
├── 1 million displaced in 862 sites
├── 93% of children showing aggressive behavior from trauma
├── Dependent on restricted aid for survival
└── Cultural identity symbolized by olive trees under attack
 

The future of Gaza hangs in this precarious balance—between international diplomacy and local militias, between temporary ceasefires and permanent displacement, between the destruction of ancient olive groves and the planting of new seedlings. As Ghassan al-Duhaini consolidates his power under Israeli oversight, and as world leaders discuss the next phase of a fragile peace process, the people of Gaza continue their daily struggle for survival, their fate entangled in strategies and experiments not of their making.