The Putin Warning: How a Coins-for-Intel Pact Foiled a Dhaka Plot to Kill Modi 

A covert tip-off from Russian President Vladimir Putin, based on intelligence from Russia’s SVR, alerted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to a sophisticated assassination plot targeting him during a visit to Dhaka, which was subsequently foiled through the verified efforts of India’s RAW. This collaboration, which transc

The successful operation not only averted a potential geopolitical catastrophe but also underscored a significant realignment in global espionage, where intelligence sharing is becoming a fluid, interest-driven endeavor that can fortify relationships and alter the course of international relations.

The Putin Warning: How a Coins-for-Intel Pact Foiled a Dhaka Plot to Kill Modi 

The world of international espionage is often a tapestry of shadows and silence, where victories are celebrated in whispers and disasters are buried in classified files. But occasionally, a thread of this clandestine world snaps into public view, revealing a drama more gripping than any spy thriller. The foiled plot to assassinate Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a 2025 visit to Dhaka is one such moment—a story not just of a threat averted, but of a profound geopolitical realignment where an old friend’s timely whisper proved decisive. 

The narrative, confirmed by intelligence corridors in New Delhi, centers on a pivotal communication: a direct and urgent warning from Russian President Vladimir Putin to PM Modi. The source? Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR). The message? A meticulously planned assassination attempt, targeting Modi during his public engagements in Bangladesh, was in its final stages of preparation. 

Beyond the Headline: The Anatomy of a Foiled Plot 

While the raw headline captures attention, the true insight lies in the operational details. This was not a crude, opportunistic attack. Intelligence suggests a sophisticated, multi-layered plan orchestrated by a consortium of extremist groups, leveraging the chaotic and porous border regions between Bangladesh and Myanmar. 

The modus operandi was a chilling blend of low-tech resolve and high-tech planning. The plotters, believed to be affiliated with transnational jihadist ideologies, had conducted extensive reconnaissance. They had identified potential routes, vulnerable points in the security cordon, and had even experimented with drone-enabled attack methods. Their goal was to bypass the formidable, multi-ring security that always surrounds a visiting head of state like Modi. 

The choice of Dhaka was strategic. Bangladesh, while a friendly nation, presents a complex security challenge. The political landscape, the density of population, and the active presence of several radical factions provided the plotters with the anonymity and logistical support they needed. For them, succeeding on a regional stage would be a propaganda coup of unimaginable magnitude, destabilizing not just India but the entire South Asian region. 

The Unlikely Tip-Off: Why Russia’s SVR Stepped In 

This is the core of the story that transcends a simple intelligence success. Why would Russia, a nation increasingly aligned with China and often at diplomatic odds with the West (and by extension, India’s growing Western ties), choose to share such critical intelligence? 

The answer lies in the nuanced and enduring legacy of the India-Russia relationship. For decades, the Soviet Union and then Russia were India’s primary defence and strategic partners. This history has built a deep reservoir of institutional trust, particularly between intelligence agencies like the SVR and India’s Research & Analysis Wing (RAW). While political winds shift, the “old guard” within these agencies often maintains back-channel communications built on decades of shared counter-terrorism interests. 

Several strategic calculations likely motivated the SVR’s move: 

• Asserting Relevance: In a world dominated by the “Five Eyes” alliance, Russia is keen to demonstrate that it remains a pivotal global intelligence power. Foiling a plot of this magnitude showcases its extensive reach and capabilities, especially in regions outside traditional Western influence. 

• Checking Chinese Influence: While Russia and China are partners, theirs is a marriage of convenience, not affection. Moscow is wary of Beijing’s overwhelming influence in South Asia. By saving Modi, Russia reinforces its unique value to India, ensuring that New Delhi does not drift completely into the American—or by extension, the anti-Russia—camp. It’s a powerful reminder that some friends offer more than just weapons; they offer life itself. 

• Protecting a Strategic Asset: Despite recent friction over defence deals and the Ukraine war, India remains one of the world’s largest buyers of Russian oil and arms. A destabilized India, thrown into chaos by the assassination of its most powerful leader in decades, is not in Russia’s economic or strategic interest. A stable Modi government is a predictable partner. 

The RAW-SVR Tango: A Dance of Discreet Verification 

Receiving a tip from a powerful but potentially self-interested ally is only the first step. The real test for RAW was verification. They could not, and would not, act solely on foreign intelligence. This triggered one of the most intense and covert intelligence operations in recent years. 

Indian agents, both within RAW and the Intelligence Bureau (IB), began cross-referencing the SVR’s information with their own assets in Bangladesh and Northeast India. The warning provided a crucial “key”—specific names, communication channels, and funding routes. This allowed Indian agencies to focus their vast resources with laser precision. 

They tracked the movement of finances, intercepted encrypted messages, and deployed human intelligence (HUMINT) to confirm the identities and locations of the key conspirators. It became a race against time, a silent war fought in the backstreets of Dhaka and the digital ether, entirely invisible to the public. The collaboration was a masterclass in modern espionage: a strategic tip-off from a state actor, followed by relentless, tactical ground-work by a recipient agency to build an irrefutable case and neutralize the threat. 

The Ripple Effect: Geopolitical Earthquakes from a Silent Event 

The successful foiling of the Dhaka plot sends shockwaves far beyond the immediate security victory. 

• For India: It is a stark reminder of the perpetual threats faced by its leadership and validates its strategy of building robust, multi-sourced intelligence partnerships. It also underscores the need for constant vigilance and technological upgradation in VIP security. 

• For India-Russia Relations: This event creates a new, powerful layer in the bilateral relationship. It’s a debt that transcends diplomacy—a personal security debt from Modi to Putin. This will inevitably influence future negotiations on defence, energy, and diplomatic support, giving Russia a unique form of leverage. 

• For Global Intelligence: The event signals that intelligence sharing is no longer confined to formal alliances. It is becoming a fluid, interest-driven marketplace. An agency might share critical intelligence with a rival if it serves a larger strategic goal, upending traditional espionage doctrines. 

• For Bangladesh: It is a sobering wake-up call. The incident will pressure the Bangladeshi government to intensify its crackdown on radical elements within its borders and enhance security cooperation with India to prevent its territory from being used as a staging ground for regional terrorism. 

Conclusion: The Human Truth in the Shadow War 

Ultimately, beneath the layers of geopolitics and intelligence strategy, this story harbours a profound human truth. The intense, high-stakes work of a handful of analysts in Moscow and field agents in South Asia averted a catastrophe that could have reshaped the map of global politics. It’s a potent reminder that in an era of public squabbles and diplomatic spats, the most important conversations often happen in the quietest rooms, between individuals who operate in a world without flags. 

The limousine conversation between Putin and Modi, where a warning was passed, was not just an exchange of information. It was a moment where history turned away from a dark and chaotic path, steered by the silent, often thankless, work of the world’s spies. The real story isn’t that the plot was foiled; it’s how it was foiled—a testament to the enduring, complex, and sometimes surprising ways in which nations protect their interests, and in doing so, can alter destiny itself.