The Political Climate of South India: Forecast Shows Fog in Hyderabad, Gaps in Kerala’s Democracy 

The weather forecasts for major South Indian cities on December 5th—featuring morning fog in Hyderabad, mist in Bengaluru, and rain in Chennai and Thiruvananthapuram—serve as a metaphorical backdrop to a more significant climate shift in Kerala, where a profound political and social vacuum persists for Dalit and Adivasi communities despite the state’s acclaimed development model.

This gap, characterized by a lack of political representation, economic capital like cultivable land, and an independent spiritual identity, has been exacerbated by the decline of autonomous movements and is now being strategically exploited by new political forces, such as allies of the BJP, who offer symbolic visibility and leadership roles as an “entry point” into these marginalized communities, signaling a potential storm of political realignment unless addressed through substantive measures like land redistribution and a comprehensive caste census.

The Political Climate of South India: Forecast Shows Fog in Hyderabad, Gaps in Kerala’s Democracy 

A Forecast of More Than Weather 

While weather reports for December 5th predict morning fog in Hyderabad and potential thunderstorms from Amaravati to Chennai, a different kind of climate demands attention across South India—particularly in Kerala. Beneath the surface of the state’s celebrated development model lies a persistent and chilling reality: a profound political and social vacuum among its most marginalized communities. 

This vacuum, left by the decline of autonomous Dalit and Adivasi political movements and the failure of mainstream parties to offer genuine representation, is no longer going unnoticed. It is becoming a strategic opportunity for new political forces. As one activist warns, this gap could lead to a “complete invasion” of ideological manipulation if left unaddressed. The forecast for Kerala, therefore, is not just for possible rain but for a gathering political storm, one that will test the foundations of its famed social democracy. 

Hyderabad: Fog and Obscured Realities 

The forecast for Hyderabad calls for morning fog, a phenomenon that reduces visibility and obscures familiar landscapes. This serves as a fitting metaphor for the obscured realities within India’s governance structures. Despite constitutional guarantees, the lived experience for millions of Dalits and Adivasis remains hidden in a statistical and representational mist. 

A stark data point illuminates this fog: of the 282 judges who have served on India’s Supreme Court, a staggering 252 have come from upper-caste communities. In key administrative roles, like central secretary posts, Other Backward Classes hold less than 3%. This exclusion is systemic. As Dalit activist and writer T.S. Shyamkumar argues, “entrenched upper-caste values continue to exclude Dalit and Adivasis from decision-making structures,” making a true democracy incomplete without their fair representation in power, administration, and culture. 

The language of power itself can perpetuate this fog. A 2025 study of Supreme Court judgments found that while rulings often upheld Dalit rights, the court’s language frequently reinforced the very caste hierarchies it aimed to erase, using demeaning analogies and downplaying systemic injustice. This highlights how visibility alone is not enough; it must be paired with dignity and an authentic voice. 

Bengaluru & Thiruvananthapuram: Mist and the Kerala Model’s Blind Spot 

South in Bengaluru, mist is expected, while Thiruvananthapuram anticipates rain. The “Kerala Model of Development” has long been globally acclaimed for achieving high literacy rates and social development. Yet, for Dalits (9.8% of the population) and Adivasis (1.14%), this model has cast a long shadow of exclusion, particularly regarding the fundamental issue of land ownership. 

Table: The Representation Gap in Kerala 

The state’s historic land reforms of the 1960s and 70s, often hailed as revolutionary, primarily created a land-owning class from upper and middle-caste tenants who could produce rent receipts. Dalits, who labored on the land but did not hold tenancy rights, were largely bypassed. They were allotted only minuscule plots for their huts—0.04 hectares in villages and 0.02 in towns—effectively preventing them from becoming cultivators and locking them into landless poverty. 

For Adivasis, the injustice stems from historical alienation. A 1975 law mandated the restoration of alienated lands, but due to the political clout of subsequent occupants and legal delays, this justice has been perpetually deferred. This systemic denial has fueled autonomous land struggles, such as the Muthanga agitation of 2003 and the Chengara struggle in 2007, led by figures like C.K. Janu and M. Geethanandan. These movements were significant because they were organized outside and against major political parties, challenging the state’s settled narrative on land reform. 

Chennai: Moderate Rain and the Storm of Political Vacuum 

Chennai’s forecast of moderate rain mirrors the active political maneuvers now taking shape. The decline of parties like the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which once provided a platform for marginalized voices in Kerala, has left a gaping void. Mainstream coalitions have failed to fill it with meaningful empowerment, viewing the “land question” as settled and fearing disruption to their support bases. 

This vacuum has not gone unnoticed by national political forces. The recent, quiet entry of Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), a BJP ally, into Kerala is a telling sign. A HAM leader explicitly stated the party aims to function as an “entry point” for communities that admire national leadership but hesitate to directly join the BJP due to its Hindutva image. Simultaneously, former CPI(M) legislators are reportedly aligning with the BJP in tribal regions. 

The journey of tribal leader C.K. Janu exemplifies the turbulent dynamics of this space. Having led major land rights agitations, she formed her own party and oscillated in and out of alliances with the BJP-led NDA, repeatedly feeling sidelined and ultimately withdrawing. Her experience underscores the friction between marginalized groups seeking self-determination and mainstream parties seeking instrumental alliances. 

Amaravati: Haze and the Search for Spiritual Anchor 

Amaravati’s forecast includes haze, reflecting the blurred and complex search for identity. Beyond political and economic capital, Dalits and Adivasis in Kerala also lack what activist T.S. Shyamkumar calls an “independent spiritual identity”. Traditional practices like the Theyyam of Malabar, which once stood outside Brahmanical structures, have been absorbed into mainstream temple culture. With the exception of some Dalits who follow Poykayil Appachan’s PRDS, there is often no spiritual center that anchors collective dignity and unity for oppressed groups. 

Paradoxically, spirituality is also being strategically orchestrated as a tool for empowerment. A 2024 study published in World Development found that in other Indian contexts, Adivasi movements can use spiritual repertoires to motivate struggle, assert indigenous identity, and protect their activities from reprisals, helping them escape debt bondage and gain land rights. This points to a profound conflict: while organic spiritual identity may be eroded, the strategic use of spirituality can be a “weapon of the weak”. 

In Kerala, this vacuum creates a vulnerability. As one research student noted, the absence of power, money, and spiritual identity is “precisely what Hindutva forces are stepping into, offering leadership posts, symbolic visibility, and even money“. However, they caution that such alliances are built on a fundamental misalignment and may ultimately collapse, leaving communities weaker. 

The Clear Sky Needed: Data, Dignity, and Redistribution 

The path forward requires dispelling the fog with clear light. Activists unanimously point to the critical need for a comprehensive caste census. “Without data, how do we even begin a conversation on upliftment?” asks BAMCEF leader Rajith Kasaragod. This data is essential to move from anecdotal evidence to a measurable framework for justice, challenging what he calls an “intentional refusal to bring it to the mainstream”. 

True empowerment must be multi-dimensional. It requires: 

• Political Will for Redistribution: Reopening the settled question of land to provide cultivable land to the landless. 

• Representative Governance: Ensuring Dalits and Adivasis hold key positions in administration, judiciary, and cultural institutions. 

• Cultural Sovereignty: Protecting and fostering independent spiritual and cultural identities outside dominant frameworks. 

• Economic Security: Implementing concrete programs that address poverty, unemployment, and landlessness beyond symbolic declarations. 

The coming “weather” in Kerala’s political landscape is contingent on these factors. The forecast suggests a period of churn and potential realignment. Whether the existing political duopoly will substantively address the voids they have long ignored, or whether new forces will successfully harness the justifiable discontent, remains the state’s most pressing unanswered question. The fog may be in Hyderabad’s morning, but clarity is most urgently needed in Kerala’s halls of power and across its excluded homesteads.