The Great H-1B Shift: How US Policy is Redefining Global Tech Talent Flows 

The sharp 70% decline in new H-1B approvals for major Indian IT firms to a 10-year low marks a fundamental realignment in global tech talent flows, driven by stricter U.S. policies—including tighter specialty occupation rules and a proposed $100,000 visa fee—that disproportionately impact service-based companies. This has shifted the competitive advantage to U.S. tech giants like Amazon and Microsoft, which now lead in new approvals as they aggressively recruit talent, especially for AI development, while the program increasingly functions to retain existing workers stuck in green card backlogs.

Consequently, Indian IT firms are accelerating local hiring in the U.S. and expanding offshore delivery centers, but the human cost includes families in visa limbo and potential long-term redirection of global talent to more welcoming countries like Canada, signaling a profound transformation in the decades-old India-U.S. tech corridor.

The Great H-1B Shift: How US Policy is Redefining Global Tech Talent Flows 

A seismic shift is reshaping the landscape of skilled immigration to the United States. In the fiscal year 2025, the top seven Indian IT services companies secured a mere 4,573 approvals for new H-1B workers—a staggering 70% decline from 2015 levels and 37% fewer than the previous year. This represents the sharpest downturn in a decade and signals a fundamental realignment in how global tech talent reaches American shores. 

For the first time, the top four spots for new H-1B approvals are occupied exclusively by U.S. technology giants: Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Google. This dramatic reversal of fortune reflects not just changing immigration policies but a deeper transformation in the global technology industry, investment priorities, and the strategic calculus of multinational corporations. 

The Data Behind the Decline: A Story of Two Trends 

The raw numbers tell a compelling story of divergence. While Indian IT firms see their new visa approvals plummet, U.S. tech companies are aggressively sponsoring foreign talent. In FY 2025, Amazon led with 4,644 new H-1B approvals, followed by Meta (1,555), Microsoft (1,394), and Google (1,050). 

Simultaneously, there is a stark disparity in denial rates, revealing where U.S. immigration scrutiny is most intensely focused: 

This data indicates a policy environment that distinguishes between companies perceived as building proprietary technology in the U.S. and those providing outsourced IT services. 

The picture changes when examining continuing employment petitions (primarily extensions for existing workers). Here, the volume remains robust, with USCIS approving 291,542 such petitions in FY 2025 with a low 1.9% denial rate. This highlights a critical new reality: the H-1B program is increasingly functioning as a retention mechanism for a large population of skilled workers already in the U.S., many stuck in years-long green card backlogs. 

The Driving Forces: Policy, Economics, and AI 

This dramatic shift is not accidental but the result of converging factors. 

1. A Stringent New Policy Framework:The Trump administration has instituted a series of measures that disproportionately affect companies that rely on high-volume H-1B filings.

• The $100,000 Fee: Announced in September 2025, this proposed twentyfold fee hike for new H-1B petitions has sent shockwaves through corporate America and India. While renewals are exempt, the cost imposes a severe financial barrier to bringing new talent to the U.S. 

• Tighter “Specialty Occupation” Rules: Modernization rules introduced in early 2025 have redefined qualifying jobs, tightened degree-relevance criteria, and raised compliance expectations. 

• Broader Scrutiny: Proposed measures like the “U.S. HIRE Bill,” which would impose a 25% duty on companies outsourcing jobs, alongside new social media vetting requirements, create a climate of uncertainty. 

2. The Trillion-Dollar AI Talent War:U.S. tech giants are in an unprecedented arms race for artificial intelligence supremacy. Alphabet (Google), Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon have collectively guided to over$380 billion in capital expenditures for the year. This investment demands elite talent. As Stuart Anderson of the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) notes, these companies are hiring “recent foreign-born graduate students from U.S. universities to help build AI in the United States”. With approximately 70% of full-time graduate students in AI-related fields at U.S. schools being international students, the H-1B visa is the essential pipeline to convert this academic talent into domestic innovation. 
3. The Evolution of the Indian IT Business Model:Indian IT firms are not merely passive victims of policy changes. Their business models have evolved.

• Increased Local Hiring: Firms like TCS, Infosys, and Wipro have significantly expanded hiring within the United States. 

• Growth of Global Capability Centers (GCCs): U.S. companies have established nearly 1,800 GCCs in India, employing 1.9 million people for R&D and technical work that once required onshore visas. 

• Remote Delivery and Nearshoring: Advancements in remote collaboration technology and the expansion of nearshore centers in locations like Mexico and Canada have reduced the need to physically relocate employees to the U.S.. 

Consequences and Strategic Realignments 

The implications of this great visa shift are profound and multi-layered. 

For Indian IT Firms: A Strategic Inflection Point The CEO of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has stated the company “will not hire new H-1B employees in the coming year”. This declaration encapsulates a broader industry pivot. The strategic focus is now on: 

• Protecting the existing U.S.-based workforce through extension petitions. 

• Accelerating the localization of talent in Western markets. 

• Doubling down on offshore delivery from India and other locations. 

For the United States: A Debate Over Competitiveness and “Cheap Labor” The policy changes have exposed a deep rift in American politics. While the administration defends skilled immigration as necessary for competitiveness, factions within the “America First” movement view the H-1B program as a betrayal, alleging it replaces American workers with “cheap labor”. However, government data contradicts the “cheap labor” narrative. In FY 2024, the average annual salary for H-1B professionals in computer-related occupations was $136,000, with a median of $125,000. Furthermore, 63% held a master’s degree or higher. Research also suggests that increasing H-1B workers in a sector correlates with lower unemployment and faster wage growth for U.S. workers in that field. 

The Human Cost: Families in Limbo Beyond corporate strategy, these policies have a intense human dimension. Long green card backlogs—exceeding 1 million applicants for India—have created a crisis for “Documented Dreamers”. These are children who legally enter the U.S. on dependent visas (like H-4) but face deportation when they turn 21 because their parents are still waiting for permanent residency. A newly reintroduced bipartisan Dream Act aims to provide a path to residency for these young people, potentially protecting nearly 100,000 Indian children. For Indian professionals, the threat of a family crisis upon a child’s 21st birthday has become a major factor in decisions about staying in or leaving the United States. 

The Global Ripple Effect 

If the United States restricts this talent pipeline, the global movement of Indian tech professionals will not cease—it will redirect. 

• Canada, Australia, and Europe: These regions have pro-immigration policies actively wooing skilled Indian talent. Canada has seen a 326% increase in Indian immigrants over the past decade. 

• Reverse Brain Drain to India: A forced decoupling could accelerate the return of skilled professionals to India’s booming tech and startup ecosystem, powered by initiatives like Startup India. 

• Innovation Migration: The risk for America is that the next groundbreaking company or AI breakthrough, historically often founded by immigrants, could be developed in Toronto, Berlin, or Bengaluru instead of Silicon Valley. 

Looking Ahead: An Uncertain Future 

The H-1B approvals for FY 2025 analyzed in these reports predate the most stringent proposed measures, like the $100,000 fee. The full impact of the current policy direction is yet to be felt. The fundamental question remains: Is the United States strategically constraining a vital source of its own technological innovation and economic dynamism in the name of protectionism? Or is it successfully recalibrating a program to prioritize top-tier talent for core innovation while encouraging job creation at home?

What is clear is that the decades-old model of talent mobility between India and the U.S. is being fundamentally rewritten. Companies, workers, and policymakers in both nations are now navigating a new, more complex, and uncertain landscape where talent is global, but opportunities are increasingly shaped by fiercely national political winds. The great H-1B shift is more than a visa statistic; it is a bellwether for the future of global tech leadership.