The Dying Brew: How Climate Change is Scorching India’s Tea Heritage and Reshaping the Global Market 

Extreme weather, characterized by blazing heat, prolonged dry spells, and erratic rainfall, is severely damaging India’s tea production in key regions like Assam, crippling harvests by shriveling yields and compromising the quality of prized leaves. This climate crisis endangers the future of the famed industry by creating hazardous working conditions that reduce labor efficiency, escalating costs for planters already grappling with debt, and threatening the global tea supply. As India’s booming domestic consumption begins to outpace its stagnating production, the world’s second-largest producer is exporting less and importing more, a shift that is expected to tighten international supplies and drive up prices for consumers worldwide, fundamentally reshaping the multi-billion dollar global tea trade.

The Dying Brew: How Climate Change is Scorching India’s Tea Heritage and Reshaping the Global Market 

Introduction: A Hotter, Harder Harvest 

Under the relentless Assam sun, Kamini Kurmi’s world has shrunk to the shade of a single umbrella strapped to her head. Her hands, prized for their dexterity, move with practiced speed, plucking the delicate two leaves and a bud that will eventually steep in cups around the world. But today, the rhythm is faltering. “When it’s really hot, my head spins and my heart starts beating very fast,” she confesses. This isn’t just a complaint about a warm day; it’s a symptom of a systemic collapse. The very climate that nurtured India’s famed tea gardens for nearly 200 years is now turning against them, jeopardizing a global industry valued at over $10 billion and a cultural heritage steeped in tradition. 

The story of India’s tea crisis is more than a headline about export figures. It’s a human story of aging workers like Manju Kurmi, who has watched her daily yield plummet from 110 kg to a mere 60 kg over her 40-year career. It’s an economic story of stagnant prices and rising debts for planters. And ultimately, it’s a global warning of how climate change is quietly reshaping the commodities we take for granted, one cup at a time. 

The Perfect Storm: Climate Shifts Crippling Production 

For centuries, the success of tea, particularly in a region as iconic as Assam, has hinged on a precise Goldilocks formula: mild, warm temperatures and consistent, high humidity. This climate encourages the slow, steady growth of leaves rich in the compounds that create a robust, aromatic cup. 

That delicate balance is now unraveling. Scientists like Rupanjali Deb Baruah of the Tea Research Association state plainly: “Shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns are no longer occasional anomalies; they are the new normal.” The data is stark: 

• Rising Temperatures: Minimum temperatures in Assam have climbed by 1.2 degrees Celsius since 1921. This heat stresses the plants, halting growth and forcing the bushes to conserve water and energy rather than producing new, tender leaves. 

• Erratic Rainfall: The monsoon, the lifeline of these plantations, is becoming unreliable. This season, rains were 38% below average. Crucially, the gentle summer and winter showers that maintained soil moisture have nearly disappeared, replaced by lengthy, punishing dry spells. 

• Downpours Instead of Drizzles: When the rain does come, it’s often sudden and intense. These torrential downpours cause soil erosion, damage the fragile roots of tea bushes, and leach away vital nutrients from the soil. 

This toxic cocktail of weather extremes doesn’t just reduce yield; it directly attacks the quality. The most coveted harvest, the “second flush” known for its malty strength and rich, winey notes, is exceptionally vulnerable to heatwaves. The stress from drought and heat can ruin the complex flavor profile that commands a premium on the global market. 

Beyond the Weather: The Cascading Effects on the Ground 

The impact of the climate crisis radiates through every layer of the tea industry, creating a vicious cycle that is increasingly difficult to break. 

1. The Plight of the Workforce: The article’s image of workers taking breaks every 30 minutes to cool down under industrial fans is a powerful testament to the human cost. Tea plucking is grueling, precise manual labor, traditionally done by women. Extreme heat makes it dangerous, leading to heatstroke, exhaustion, and a significant drop in productivity. The industry’s most valuable asset—its skilled workforce—is being physically compromised.
2. Pests and Disease: The new climate normal is a boon for pests. Longer dry spells followed by humid periods create ideal breeding conditions for mites, caterpillars, and other insects that thrive on stressed plants. Estates are reporting more frequent and severe infestations, leaving leaves discolored, blotched, and riddled with holes. This forces planters to increase pesticide use, which adds to costs and raises concerns about chemical residues in the final product.
3. The Financial Squeeze: For planters, this is a perfect storm of rising costs and falling output. They are now forced to invest in irrigation systems for a crop that historically relied solely on rainfall. Meanwhile, costs for pesticides, fertilizers, and higher wages (a justified necessity for workers laboring in harsher conditions) are rising at 8-9% annually. Yet, for decades, tea auction prices grew at a meager 4.8% a year, lagging far behind other staples. Last year’s 7.8% production drop did cause a price spike of nearly a fifth, but such volatility makes long-term planning and essential reinvestment impossible.

An Industry Fighting Back Against the Inevitable 

Faced with an existential threat, the tea industry is not going down without a fight. Estates are adopting new strategies to survive: 

• Adaptive Agriculture: Planters are pruning bushes earlier, digging compost pits to improve soil water retention, and experimenting with shade trees to protect bushes from the direct sun. 

• The Replanting Imperative: Many of Assam’s bushes are colonial-era plants, well past their productive prime of 40-50 years. These older bushes are less resilient and yield far less. Replanting with new, climate-resilient varieties is the single most important long-term solution. However, it’s a costly process that takes years for the new bushes to become productive, and planters argue government incentives are insufficient to spur widespread action. 

• Research & Development: Scientists are working to develop new hybrid tea varieties that are more drought-resistant, heat-tolerant, and less susceptible to pests. This biotechnological arms race against climate change is critical for the industry’s future. 

The Global Ripple Effect: Your Cup is About to Change 

The implications of India’s production struggle extend far beyond its borders. As the world’s second-largest producer, India accounted for 12% of global exports last year. This shrinkage is happening while other major producers like Kenya and Sri Lanka also face climate and economic challenges. 

This convergence of factors points to one inevitable outcome: a structural tightening of global tea supply. For years, the world market has been cushioned by surplus production and fierce competition. That era may be ending. A sustained supply crunch will finally grant the global price of tea the “boost” that exporters have long awaited, but one driven by scarcity rather than healthy demand. 

Furthermore, India’s story is flipping the script on trade. As rising domestic consumption (up 23% in a decade) outstrips its stagnating production, India is increasingly consuming its own premium output. Astonishingly, to meet demand for cheaper blends, India’s tea imports nearly doubled in 2024 to a record 45.3 million kg. The world’s largest consumer and a historic exporter is now becoming a significant importer, a shift that will add yet more pressure to international markets. 

Conclusion: More Than a Commodity at Stake 

The crisis in India’s tea gardens is a microcosm of the challenges facing global agriculture in a climate-disrupted world. It’s a stark reminder that the commodities we consume are deeply tied to the environment and the people who cultivate them. 

The future of tea is at a crossroads. One path leads to a world where high-quality, single-origin teas from places like Assam and Darjeeling become rare luxuries, and the everyday cup is comprised of blended, commodity-grade leaves from wherever they can still be grown. The other path requires a concerted global effort—supporting planters in replanting, investing in climate-smart agriculture, and ensuring fair prices that reflect the true environmental and human cost of production. 

The next time you sip a cup of Assam tea, consider the journey it took. Consider the heat, the struggle, and the uncertainty that went into harvesting those leaves. It’s a flavor that is becoming increasingly difficult, and costly, to preserve. The brew in our cup is changing, and its future is anything but certain.