The Delicate Dance: Why Canada is Prioritizing Security Over Trade in its Thorny Reconciliation with India 

In a cautious effort to normalize relations with India following a significant diplomatic rupture over allegations of Indian involvement in the murder of a Sikh activist on Canadian soil, Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand has outlined a step-by-step approach that prioritizes national security over economic interests. During her recent trip, Anand forcefully conveyed to Indian leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, that respect for Canadian sovereignty and an end to transnational repression and violent interference are non-negotiable prerequisites for any deeper engagement.

While both nations have agreed to a “New Roadmap” to rebuild ties and there is strong mutual economic interest in areas like critical minerals and AI, Canada is explicitly delaying any discussion of a free-trade agreement until tangible progress is made on security concerns, including the ongoing RCMP investigation and the activities of the India-linked Bishnoi gang, which Ottawa has designated a terrorist entity.

The Delicate Dance: Why Canada is Prioritizing Security Over Trade in its Thorny Reconciliation with India 

The handshakes and diplomatic photo-ops in New Delhi and Mumbai this week belied a deep and persistent tension. When Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Anita Anand, sat down with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the subtext of their conversation was as significant as the text. The message from Ottawa, delivered with polite but unyielding force, was clear: Before we talk business, we must establish boundaries. 

The visit, aimed at normalizing a relationship shattered by allegations of state-sponsored assassination on Canadian soil, marks a new, more pragmatic chapter under Prime Minister Mark Carney. But Anand’s statements reveal a carefully calibrated, step-by-step strategy that places national security and sovereignty as non-negotiable prerequisites for any future economic partnership. This isn’t a return to the old relationship; it’s an attempt to build a new one on a foundation of hard-won, and still-fragile, trust. 

The Unforgettable Rupture: From Allies to Adversaries 

To understand the cautious tone of today’s diplomacy, one must recall the seismic events of 2023. The public accusation by then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that Indian government agents were involved in the murder of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Surrey, B.C., was a diplomatic nuclear option. It’s the kind of allegation that typically severs ties for a generation. 

The fracture deepened in October 2024 when the RCMP presented what they called “clear evidence” linking Indian agents to a wider pattern of “homicides, extortion, and other violent activities” within Canada. The subsequent expulsion of India’s high commissioner and several diplomats wasn’t just a symbolic gesture; it was a declaration that Ottawa viewed New Delhi’s actions as an intolerable violation of its sovereignty. 

This context makes Anand’s trip not merely a diplomatic mending of fences, but a high-stakes negotiation over the very rules of engagement between two allied democracies. 

The Anand Doctrine: A Step-by-Step Roadmap with Security as the First Step 

Minister Anand’s approach can be distilled into a clear, sequential doctrine: 

• Address Security and Sovereignty: This is the non-negotiable first step. Anand stated unequivocally that her “top of mind” concern in every meeting was “domestic public security in Canada.” She explicitly raised the issues of “transnational repression” and the “safety and security of every Canadian,” sending a direct message that the targeting of diaspora communities, particularly Sikh Canadians, is a red line. 

• Re-establish Diplomatic Norms: Before trade can flow freely, diplomats must be able to operate safely and at full capacity. Anand pointedly noted that freer trade talks are contingent on Ottawa being able to fully staff its missions—a lingering issue from the 2023 expulsions. 

• Explore Sectoral Cooperation: Only after the first two steps are secured can the relationship progress to what Anand calls “greater trade resilience.” This involves collaboration in less politically charged areas like artificial intelligence, agri-food, and critical minerals, where mutual interest is high and strategic dependencies can be built. 

• Consider Comprehensive Trade (A Distant Horizon): A full free trade agreement (FTA), once a primary goal, has been explicitly pushed to the back burner. “That does not include the work of a free trade agreement at this time,” Anand confirmed. This is the clearest signal that the relationship, while improving, remains in a fragile, confidence-building phase. 

This sequential approach is a masterclass in pragmatic statecraft. It allows for a gradual de-escalation without ceding ground on core principles. By signing a joint “New Roadmap” declaration focused on “mutual respect for shared democratic values” and “sovereignty,” both sides have a framework to point to, even as their interpretations of those words may differ dramatically. 

The Elephant in the Room: The Bishnoi Gang and the Web of Denial 

A critical component of Canada’s security-first stance is the formal listing of the Bishnoi gang as a terrorist entity. Canadian authorities have linked this notorious criminal organization, known for extortion and murder, to elements within India’s intelligence services—a connection India consistently denies. 

This move is far more than a bureaucratic designation. It does three things: 

• It legitimizes the RCMP’s investigation into Nijjar’s murder and other activities, providing a legal framework for targeting the group’s assets and networks. 

• It internationalizes the issue, putting allies on notice about the gang’s activities and its alleged state links. 

• It creates a tangible benchmark for progress. For trust to be rebuilt, Canada will need to see a demonstrable end to the activities it attributes to the Bishnoi gang and any other state-linked entities. 

The Compelling Counterweight: The Irresistible Pull of the Indian Economy 

Despite the profound security concerns, the gravitational pull of India’s economy is undeniable. As the world’s most populous nation and its fastest-growing major economy, India represents a market Canada simply cannot ignore. The Business Council of Canada, with President Goldy Hyder planning a delegation for early next year, is visibly enthusiastic. 

India’s shopping list is equally clear and strategically aligned with Canada’s strengths: 

• Critical Minerals for the green transition. 

• Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to fuel its industrial growth. 

• Nuclear Energy technology and expertise to meet its massive power needs. 

• Agri-food to feed its vast population. 

This mutual economic need is the engine driving the diplomatic train forward, even as Canada carefully applies the brakes on security issues. The revival of a CEO forum is a safe, business-led mechanism to keep the economic dialogue alive while the politicians navigate the more treacherous political terrain. 

The Voices of Caution: Why Optimism Must Be Tempered with Realism 

The optimism in business circles is not universally shared. Security experts and community leaders urge a posture of extreme caution. 

• Dan Stanton, a former CSIS senior manager, reminds us that Canada’s own intelligence service still assesses India as a “significant national security threat.” He warns that the ongoing Nijjar investigation could yet reveal “other homicides linked to India,” potentially triggering a new crisis. 

• Danish Singh of the World Sikh Organization of Canada expresses a profound and valid concern: that in the rush to normalize relations, the ongoing reality of “transnational repression” against Canadian Sikhs could be swept under the rug. His demand that Ottawa vet Indian diplomats to ensure they are not intelligence operatives underscores the deep, lingering distrust within the communities most affected. 

Conclusion: A New, More Complex Normal 

The Carney government’s strategy represents a mature evolution in Canadian foreign policy. It acknowledges a complex world where a country can be both a vital economic partner and a national security concern simultaneously. 

This is not the old model of friendship or hostility. It is a new, more nuanced paradigm of “managed engagement.” Canada is not shunning India; it is seeking to engage with it from a position of strength, with its eyes wide open to the risks. 

The path to a truly normalized relationship is long and fraught with potential pitfalls. The success of this “New Roadmap” will not be measured by the signing of declarations or the revival of CEO forums, but by a simple, tangible metric: Can Canadian citizens, particularly those in vulnerable diaspora communities, live without fear of foreign interference and violence on their own soil? 

Only when the answer to that question is a resounding “yes” will the conversation truly be able to turn to the boundless opportunities of free trade. Until then, security will rightly remain the first and most important step on this delicate diplomatic tightrope.