Red Meat Prices Surge as Farm Profits Nearly Double in 2024-25

New Zealand’s red meat sector is experiencing a strong recovery, with farm profitability and export earnings expected to rise significantly in 2024-25. Global demand remains robust in key markets such as the UK, EU, US, and Canada, helping to offset weaker demand from China. Export revenue is projected to increase by $1.2 billion, reaching $10.2 billion despite lower overall volumes. Farm-gate prices have surged, with lamb forecast at $155 per head (+20%) and mutton at $90 (+70%), while cattle prices are set to reach record highs at 618 cents per kg (+16%).

As a result, the average farm profit is expected to nearly double to $106,500, though it remains below the five-year average. However, rising costs are a concern, with farm input expenses having increased by 33% over the past four years. The sector continues to play a vital role in New Zealand’s economy, contributing $6.4 billion and supporting local businesses. Exporters have diversified their markets, prioritizing regions with stronger demand. Despite positive momentum, risks remain, particularly regarding US trade policies and regulatory uncertainty around climate and water. Stability in these areas is essential for long-term confidence and industry growth.

Red Meat Prices Surge as Farm Profits Nearly Double in 2024-25

New Zealand’s red meat industry is experiencing a strong recovery, with farm profitability and export earnings expected to rise significantly in the 2024-25 season, according to Beef + Lamb New Zealand’s (B+LNZ) Mid-Season Update.

Despite lower overall export volumes, global demand—particularly from the United Kingdom, European Union, United States, and Canada—has remained robust, helping to counterbalance weaker demand from China. As a result, export revenue is projected to grow by $1.2 billion compared to the previous year, reaching $10.2 billion.

B+LNZ Chair Kate Acland noted that while the improved global market conditions are promising, challenges remain.

“This rebound is great news for farmers after a difficult 2023-24 season and a positive outcome for New Zealand. Strong demand, combined with a weaker New Zealand dollar, has led to higher red meat prices.

“However, potential risks remain. We are closely monitoring trade policy developments in the US, as they could introduce market volatility,” she said.

Farm-gate prices have seen significant growth this season. Lamb prices are forecast to reach $155 per head, marking a 20 percent increase from last season and a 9 percent rise above the five-year average. Mutton prices are expected to climb to $90 per head, a remarkable 70 percent jump from last season. Meanwhile, cattle prices are set to reach record highs, with an all-beef price of 618 cents per kg—16 percent higher than last season and 20 percent above the five-year average.

This upward trend is driving farm profitability, with the average farm profit for 2024-25 expected to nearly double to $106,500 from last season’s $56,400. However, it remains below the five-year average.

“While the increase in profitability is encouraging, rising costs continue to be a concern,” Acland explained.

“Although revenue has improved, farm input costs have surged by 33 percent over the past four years, keeping profitability below sustainable long-term levels.”

Beyond individual farm profits, the red meat industry remains a major contributor to New Zealand’s economy. This season, sheep and beef farmers are projected to generate approximately $6.4 billion in income. Every day, they inject around $15 million into local economies through purchases of goods and services, with 80-90 percent of that spending staying within communities to support businesses and jobs.

Global trade dynamics have played a crucial role in the sector’s recovery. While China remains a key market, New Zealand exporters have diversified their trade, prioritizing regions with stronger demand. Additionally, reduced supply from New Zealand and historically low US cattle numbers have further bolstered farm-gate prices.

“We’re seeing positive momentum in the sector, but uncertainty persists,” Acland said.

“Farmer confidence is gradually returning, yet regulatory uncertainty—particularly concerning climate change, freshwater management, and other policy issues—continues to weigh on their minds.

“Ensuring stability in these areas is essential for long-term confidence and investment. New Zealand’s red meat sector is resilient, and with supportive policy frameworks, we can build on this recovery and strengthen the industry further.”