Navigating the Fog: How Indian Industry is Adapting to Global Tariffs and Geopolitical Uncertainty 

Amid a shifting global order marked by protective US tariffs and profound uncertainty, Indian businesses are confronting critical challenges and opportunities, as revealed in a leadership roundtable. Key industries like textiles, renewables, and electronics are grappling with an inescapable dependency on Chinese supply chains while facing severe market access risks, particularly from America, which threatens millions of jobs in labor-intensive sectors.

This has sparked a urgent consensus on the need for geographic diversification into new markets like South America and Eastern Europe, the creation of strong global Indian brands beyond domestic confines, and building strategic resilience. Ultimately, leaders are learning to navigate this persistent “fog” of uncertainty—viewing it not just as a threat but as a potential advantage for those with strong balance sheets and the agility to adapt, turning global chaos into a opportunity for growth and greater self-reliance.

Navigating the Fog: How Indian Industry is Adapting to Global Tariffs and Geopolitical Uncertainty 

Introduction: A World Turned Upside Down 

The rules of global trade, once seemingly written in stone, are now being redrawn in real-time. For Indian business leaders, the landscape resembles a dense, unpredictable fog. The catalyst? A wave of protectionist policies, most notably the United States’ aggressive use of tariffs, which has sent shockwaves through the global economic order. This isn’t just about increased costs; it’s a fundamental rupture in the assumptions that have underpinned international business for decades. 

In this climate of profound uncertainty, leaders from India’s pivotal sectors—renewables, electronics, textiles, auto components, and mining—gathered for a critical roundtable discussion. Their conversation reveals a nation at a crossroads: grappling with deep-seated dependencies, fearing a massive human cost, but also identifying a unique window of opportunity to redefine its role on the world stage. This is the story of how Indian business is learning to navigate the fog. 

The Elephant in the Room: The Inescapable Shadow of China 

No topic dominated the discourse more than India’s complex and often uncomfortable relationship with China. For many industries, China is less a competitor and more an integral, albeit risky, part of their operational backbone. 

In the renewable energy sector, this dependence is particularly stark. “China is the biggest part of our supply chain, so anything that happens with China is the biggest risk for us,” stated Nikhil Dhingra of ACME Solar. While India has made commendable strides in domestic solar module manufacturing, the most critical and advanced technology—for wind turbines, battery storage, and lithium-ion cells—remains overwhelmingly Chinese. 

Bharat Saxena of INOX Clean Energy provided a nuanced view, noting that module dependency has fallen from over 100% to about 80% thanks to domestic production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes. However, he highlighted the staggering scale gap. “CATL [Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited] is putting up a 500 GW battery plant spread over 68 km. Nobody can even visualize that scale,” he remarked. His warning was clear: “India has to become China plus one—we can’t miss the bus while Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand are moving fast.” 

The electronics manufacturing sector finds itself in a similar bind, caught between two superpowers. Jasbir Singh Gujral of Syrma SGS perfectly captured this dilemma: “We are stuck between two devils. You can’t wish away China for the supply chain, and you can’t wish away America as a consumer.” This succinctly summarizes the tightrope walk Indian manufacturers must perform: maintaining access to Chinese inputs while avoiding the wrath of their primary consumer market, the US. 

The Ambition Gap: Where Are India’s Global Champions? 

A recurring theme of self-reflection was India’s surprising lack of globally dominant brands and corporations, given its vast scale and economic ambition. Pankaj Mohindroo of the India Cellular & Electronics Association (ICEA) framed the challenge starkly: “Eighteen percent of the world’s population sits on 3.5% of world GDP.” He pointed out that no successful “tiger economy” has been built without the significant participation of women in the workforce, nor can India achieve its potential without becoming a massive merchandise exporter. 

While celebrating the export surge in electronics, Mohindroo lamented the absence of homegrown giants. “We don’t have a single strong global brand beyond perhaps Hero, Bajaj and Mahindra. We need global value chains across sectors, not just small firms feeding the domestic market.” 

This sentiment was echoed from the mining sector. Neeraj Awasthi of AngloAmerican noted, “We are the world’s largest producer of zinc, but we don’t have a global brand. We are buying inputs and selling to domestic farmers.” He pointed to regulatory frameworks that often inhibit Indian companies from achieving the scale needed to compete internationally, keeping them confined to the domestic market. 

The Human Cost: Tariffs That Threaten Livelihoods 

Beyond balance sheets and export figures, the roundtable exposed the very real human toll of these geopolitical shifts. The apparel and textile industry, a massive employer of low-skilled and female workers, stands on the front line. 

Sudhir Dhingra of Orient Craft delivered a sobering warning: “Several companies, including ours, depend 80-95% on the American market. If no compromise is found, you will see 1 crore people out of jobs in the next 3-4 months.” He drew a powerful contrast with Bangladesh, where the garment industry has been a transformative engine for female empowerment and economic mobility. 

“At least 50% of India’s people are women, most in smaller towns. Their fate is sealed if labour-intensive sectors are ignored. Technology is good, but half of India will be left behind,” Dhingra argued. This fear connects directly to Mohindroo’s point about female workforce participation, creating a consensus that India’s demographic dividend is at risk of becoming a demographic crisis if job creation in export-oriented sectors stalls. 

The Strategic Imperative: Diversification and Derisking 

In response to these threats, a clear strategy emerged: aggressive diversification. The over-reliance on any single market, even one as vast as the United States, is now seen as a critical vulnerability. 

“Why are we so hung up on America?” asked Sudhir Dhingra. “How many of us have gone to South America, Eastern Europe, Russia? This is the opportunity.” This call to explore non-traditional markets was a rallying cry for many attendees. 

Jasbir Singh Gujral provided a practical example from his own business. Only 5% of Syrma SGS’s revenue comes from the US, with exports overall constituting 25%. He emphasized the value of building long-term partnerships elsewhere, particularly in Europe. “My first European client from 1992 is still with me,” he noted. “Companies have to derisk geographies and sectors alike.” This strategy of building a diversified global portfolio is becoming the new gold standard for resilient Indian businesses. 

Embracing the Fog: Uncertainty as the New Normal 

Perhaps the most profound insight was the acceptance that volatility is not a temporary condition but a permanent feature of the new global order. Shivpriya Nanda of JSA Advocates & Solicitors offered a brilliant analogy: “From 2005 when (Thomas) Friedman wrote about the world being flat to now, there is complete uncertainty. World politics today is like Gen Z ‘situationships’ — you don’t know who is with whom, or for how long.” 

This legal uncertainty is palpable. Nanda explained how standard contract clauses like force majeure, scrutinized during COVID, are now inadequate. Lawyers are now grappling with how to draft clauses that protect clients from sudden tariff shocks and cancelled shipments due to geopolitical spats. 

For auto component makers like Vivek Vikram Singh of Sona Comstar, this unpredictability directly impacts the bottom line. “Nobody has 25% margins to absorb tariffs. Eventually the customer has to deal with their government,” he stated. 

Yet, within this chaos, Singh and others see a unique opportunity. “Uncertainty is like a fog. If you can navigate it, you’ll get ahead,” he said. “Two European competitors have already gone belly up. There is opportunity for Indian firms with strong balance sheets.” In this view, the fog doesn’t just obscure the path; it also hides competitors and creates openings for those agile enough to move forward. 

Conclusion: Building Resilience for the Long Haul 

The path forward for Indian industry is not about finding a single solution but about building multi-layered resilience. It requires a three-pronged approach: 

• Strategic Decoupling: Carefully reducing dependency on China for critical inputs while accelerating domestic capability through innovation and scale. 

• Market Diversification: A concerted, government-industry effort to aggressively penetrate markets in South America, Africa, Eastern Europe, and Asia, reducing the overwhelming focus on the West. 

• Building Global Brands: Moving beyond being a contract manufacturer to creating valuable, world-class Indian brands that capture more of the global value chain. 

As Pankaj Mohindroo suggested, India must learn to “sleep with the enemy,” leveraging technology and capital from wherever it can be found to build its own strength, much as China did decades ago. 

The fog of uncertainty will not lift soon. But as Vivek Vikram Singh concluded, the choice is clear: “If you sit waiting for the fog to clear, you’ll be where you started—sometimes you might be left behind. If you can feel your way through, you will get there faster.” For Indian industry, the time for waiting is over. The time for navigating has begun.