India’s Growing Appetite for Animal Products: What the Future Holds for Production, Trade, and Feed Imports

India, the world’s most populous country since 2023, is expected to see continued population growth and rising incomes, driving increased demand for animal products, particularly meat and feed. However, the country faces limited arable land, which could put pressure on domestic prices, necessitating greater imports of animal feed like soybean meal and corn. Non-dairy animal product consumption has risen significantly since 1960, but India’s per capita consumption still lags behind many countries. Beef and poultry production have grown, though productivity remains lower than major global producers.

By 2050, India may need to import substantial amounts of corn and soybean meal to meet rising demand, especially under rapid income growth scenarios. Feed production has expanded, but the need for imports will become more pressing by the 2030s. India’s future animal product demand and feed imports depend largely on income growth rates and technological adoption.

India’s Growing Appetite for Animal Products: What the Future Holds for Production, Trade, and Feed Imports

India, having become the world’s most populous country in 2023, is set to experience continued population growth well into the mid-21st century. This population expansion, combined with rising income levels, is expected to drive an increased demand for food, especially animal products. The country’s population is projected to grow at a rate of 0.7% annually, while GDP per capita could increase by 3.8% in a moderate income growth scenario, and 6.2% in a faster income growth scenario. As incomes rise, dietary preferences are expected to shift, leading to a higher consumption of animal products.

However, this surge in demand may face challenges due to India’s limited arable land, putting pressure on domestic food and feed prices. For instance, in 2021, India had to resort to importing soybean meal despite previously banning genetically engineered (GE) products due to high domestic prices. This suggests that India’s dependence on imports, including GE goods, could increase as the demand for animal products grows.

India’s animal product consumption has seen steady growth, particularly in non-dairy products. Since 1960, the per capita consumption of non-dairy animal products has risen significantly from less than 6 kg to 17 kg by 2021. Despite this, India’s consumption of poultry, beef, goat meat, and pork remains lower compared to other low-income food-deficit countries. By 2050, with a population expected to exceed 1.5 billion, incomes are anticipated to double, further intensifying the demand for animal products. Urbanization will also contribute to this shift, as over half of India’s population is projected to live in urban areas by 2046.

India has become the world’s third-largest exporter of beef, primarily carabeef from Asian water buffaloes. However, beef production and productivity in India still lag behind other major global producers such as Australia, Brazil, China, and the U.S. Poultry production has grown steadily since 2000, with an annual increase of 8.5%, but it still remains below the global average in terms of productivity. Additionally, India has emerged as a significant exporter of fish and seafood, with exports making up around 9.44% of its domestic production.

The country’s feed production sector has expanded in recent years, with major components such as corn, wheat, and soybean meal making up almost two-thirds of animal feed consumption in 2022/23, with corn accounting for 40.5%. As the demand for animal products rises, it is expected that India will require more feed, and imports may become necessary by the early 2030s. Projections indicate that India’s corn imports could rise to 122 million metric tons by 2050 in the event of rapid income growth. In a more moderate income growth scenario, imports are expected to range from 14 million metric tons to 26 million metric tons by 2050, depending on the adoption of genetically engineered crops.

Soybean meal imports are also projected to increase, from 2.1 million metric tons in 2020 to over 10 million metric tons by 2030 with rapid income growth. By 2050, these imports could range between 49.4 million and 52.9 million metric tons, again influenced by GE adoption. In a moderate growth scenario, imports would be 3.2 million metric tons in 2030 and could reach 9.3 to 12.8 million metric tons by 2050.

The study behind these projections draws on data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the USDA, and household surveys in India. It incorporates macroeconomic projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 and SSP5) to estimate future population and income, along with feed conversion ratios and meat demand projections to assess the future supply and demand for animal feed in India.