India Faces Power Crisis: Grid Operator Warns of Shortages in May and June

India’s power grid operator warns of potential electricity shortages in May and June, with unmet demand possibly reaching 15-20 GW, especially during non-solar hours. The National Load Despatch Centre (NLDC) suggests shifting electricity use to off-peak hours to ease grid stress. Rising demand and limited coal-based capacity contribute to the crisis. The probability of shortfalls in May is 19-31%, with June facing a 4.7-20.1% risk. Energy storage, like battery storage (BESS) and pumped storage (PSP), is lacking, worsening the issue. The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) calls for integrating storage with solar projects.

The NLDC recommends rescheduling thermal plant maintenance to low-demand months. Past policies limiting new coal capacity and discouraging imported coal plants have exacerbated the issue. The government now plans to add 80 GW of coal-based power by 2031-32. Private investment in thermal power remains weak, and nuclear expansion is slow. Experts fear that with demand hitting 270 GW this summer, the grid may struggle. Urgent action is needed to prevent widespread power shortages.

India Faces Power Crisis: Grid Operator Warns of Shortages in May and June

India’s power grid operator has warned of potential electricity shortages in May and June, with demand possibly exceeding supply by 15-20 gigawatts (GW), especially during non-solar hours. The National Load Despatch Centre (NLDC) has suggested measures to ease strain on the grid, such as encouraging electricity use during off-peak hours.

A January report identified May as the most challenging month, followed by other high-demand summer months. The primary causes are rising electricity consumption and inconsistent renewable power generation. To address this, the report recommends using emergency provisions under the Electricity Act, 2003, to ensure imported coal-based power plants operate at full capacity.

While solar energy supports daytime electricity needs, it doesn’t cover evening and early morning demand. India’s power supply still relies heavily on coal-based plants, which have seen little expansion in recent years. This limits the grid’s ability to meet growing demand outside solar hours, increasing the likelihood of shortages in the coming months.

The report predicts a high probability of power shortfalls, particularly in May. Even in the best-case scenario, there is a 19% chance of supply falling short, rising to 31% in more likely situations. For June, the probability ranges from 4.7% to 20.1%, depending on various factors.

Energy shortages are expected to be severe in May and July, frequently exceeding 15 GW, and will primarily occur during non-solar hours in May, June, July, and August. While solar power helps meet daytime demand, the grid struggles to compensate during evenings and early mornings.

To mitigate these challenges, the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) issued an advisory in February, recommending that solar projects incorporate energy storage systems. Technologies like battery energy storage systems (BESS) and pumped storage plants (PSP) can store excess solar power for use at night or early morning when demand is high.

India’s renewable energy capacity has surpassed 200 GW, but its energy storage capacity remains low—under 5 GW as of late 2024. The NLDC stresses that expanding energy storage is crucial for grid stability and peak demand management. Delays in these developments could worsen the crisis.

The report also advises rescheduling the maintenance of thermal power plants from high-demand months (April to July) to low-demand periods (November to January). Since thermal plants are critical for meeting demand outside solar hours, ensuring their availability during peak months is essential, particularly given the current lack of energy storage.

The energy crisis has also highlighted past policy decisions that may have contributed to the problem. The National Electricity Plan (2017-22) did not allocate new thermal power capacity beyond projects already under construction, and imported coal-based plants were discouraged due to rising global coal prices.

Recently, corrective steps have been taken, such as promoting nuclear energy, restarting idle coal plants, and updating policies to require energy storage in new solar projects. In December 2023, ahead of the COP28 climate summit, the government decided to increase coal-based power generation by at least 80 GW by 2031-32 under the latest National Electricity Plan (2022-27). However, private investment in thermal power remains low, and nuclear expansion has been slow.

With summer approaching, electricity demand is expected to reach 270 GW, up from 250 GW last year. Experts warn that the grid may not be able to handle the pressure. Without urgent action, India could face widespread power shortages in the coming months.