Harris Narrowly Edges Trump 48.5% to 48.2% in Nevada, Rosen Secures Senate Victory

Kamala Harris is predicted to narrowly defeat Donald Trump in Nevada, with 48.5% to 48.2% of the vote. Senator Jacky Rosen is expected to win re-election against Sam Brown, while the House races remain largely unaffected. Democrats are poised to gain a supermajority in the state Senate, with a possible shift in the state Assembly.

CONTENTS:

• Trump leads overall, Harris competitive.
• Trump leads, race tightens, battleground.
• Harris edges Trump, Rosen wins.

Harris Narrowly Edges Trump 48.5% to 48.2% in Nevada, Rosen Secures Senate Victory

Trump leads overall, Harris competitive

Harris Narrowly Edges Trump 48.5% to 48.2%  In Nevada, the contest for the state’s six Electoral College votes is heating up between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris. This state has become a crucial battleground, likely to play a key role in determining the winner of the election. Trump has emphasized issues like the economy, immigration, and crime in his campaign, while Harris, who took over as the Democratic candidate after President Biden dropped out, has focused on advancing the care economy, protecting abortion rights, and safeguarding democracy.

In the 2020 election, Biden won Nevada with 50% of the vote compared to Trump’s 48%, while in 2016, Hillary Clinton won the state with 48% to Trump’s 46%.

As of the latest vote counts:
– Trump has 51.4% of the vote with 549,384 votes.
– Harris has 47.0% with 501,921 votes.
– A small percentage (1.1%) of voters chose “None of these candidates.”

Harris Narrowly Edges Trump 48.5% to 48.2% 

Total voter turnout is at 1,068,287 votes.

In various counties:
– In Carson City, with 86.2% of votes in, Trump holds 50.1% while Harris has 47.9%.
– In Churchill, with 93% of votes in, Trump is leading with 73.9% compared to Harris’s 23.5%.
– In Clark County, with 77% of votes in, Harris leads with 50.2%, while Trump has 48.4%.
– In Douglas County, with 75.4% of votes in, Trump is ahead with 66.6%, leaving Harris with 31.5%.

Voter demographics reveal differences in support across gender and race:
– Among men, Trump leads with 56%, while Harris has 41%.
– Among women, Harris leads with 52%, while Trump has 44%.
– Among White voters, Trump leads with 55%, while Harris has 42%.
– Among non-White voters, Harris has 54%, while Trump has 41%.

Trump leads, race tightens, battleground

Harris Narrowly Edges Trump 48.5% to 48.2%  In the 2024 election, both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are vying for Nevada’s six critical Electoral College votes. The state has been a battleground in previous elections, with Biden winning in 2020 by a narrow margin of 2.4% and Clinton winning in 2016 by about 2%. As of the latest count, with 93% of votes in, Trump is leading Harris with 53.5% of the vote, according to CNN projections. Polls have shown the race to be close, with both candidates averaging around 47% support heading into Election Day.

Nevada, one of seven key swing states, is crucial in the race to reach the 270 votes needed to win the presidency. In 2016, Clinton won Nevada with 47.9% of the vote, defeating Trump, who garnered 45.5%. The outcome was largely influenced by the populous Washoe and Clark counties, which contain almost 90% of the state’s voters. In 2020, Biden secured Nevada with 50.1% of the vote, beating Trump by 2.4% in those same counties.

Ahead of the 2024 election, polling showed a tight race, with Harris initially holding a 10% lead in early October, but that lead narrowed as Election Day approached. Key issues for Nevada voters include the economy, with rising housing costs in areas like Reno, and education, particularly the need for better funding for public schools and vocational training.

Over half of Nevada’s eligible voters cast their ballots early, with Republicans making up 45.5% and Democrats 27.7%. However, early voting doesn’t always reflect the final tally, as mail-in ballots remain uncounted.

Trump made more campaign stops in Nevada, holding four rallies, including three in Las Vegas and one in Reno, while Harris visited the state twice, in Reno on October 31 and Las Vegas on August 10. Additionally, the Harris-Walz campaign purchased advertising space on the Las Vegas Sphere in the final weeks of the campaign.

Harris edges Trump, Rosen wins

Harris Narrowly Edges Trump 48.5% to 48.2%  In hindsight, predicting the outcome of the 2022 elections should have marked the end of my forecasting career, especially after accurately predicting the victories of Gov. Joe Lombardo (with a 1.5% win) and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (with under a 1% win). But I couldn’t resist continuing, despite the pressure of being right or wrong.

I often start my prediction columns by highlighting my past successes—such as correctly forecasting Harry Reid’s 2010 win, Dean Heller’s 2012 victory, and the 2016 and 2020 presidential results—to shield myself from backlash if I’m wrong. But, as we know, no matter how right I’ve been in the past, there’s always the risk of facing criticism in today’s polarized world.

I’ve never missed a Nevada presidential prediction, though this one is the most challenging yet. My forecast, based on early voting data, historical patterns, and insights from various sources, suggests a very tight race. This year, the GOP has front-loaded its early votes, largely due to Trump encouraging early and mail-in voting. As of now, the GOP leads by over 43,000 ballots, but with many Clark County ballots still uncounted, I believe Democrats could catch up.

Nevada’s electoral math is complicated, and while the GOP has gained ground in voter registration, a large group of nonpartisan voters—many of whom are aligned with the Democrats—could ultimately sway the result. The crucial factor will be whether these nonpartisan voters and women, motivated by abortion rights, break toward Kamala Harris. I believe they will, giving her a narrow edge.

The race will likely remain too close to call on Election Night, and while it will be tight, I predict Harris will edge out Trump, with a final vote of 48.5% for Harris, 48.2% for Trump, and 3.3% for others or “None of These Candidates.”

In the Senate race, I believe Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) has run a nearly flawless campaign. She raised substantial funds and used them effectively, particularly after Sam Brown won the GOP primary, where she relentlessly attacked his shifting positions on abortion. Brown, a recent Texas transplant with little political experience, was never a top-tier Republican candidate, and he struggled to find a footing. I don’t trust the polls showing Rosen leading by double digits, as that’s uncommon in Nevada Senate races, but I expect Rosen to win, possibly securing the victory on Election Night. Prediction: Rosen 50%, Brown 45%, others 5%.

In the House races, the three Democratic-held districts in southern Nevada shouldn’t be competitive, as the Republican candidates are second-tier and lacked the fundraising power of the incumbents. Reps. Dina Titus, Steven Horsford, and Susie Lee will likely win, though their margins may be narrower than expected. They each had close races in 2022, but this year they have small leads in the early vote, especially from Clark County, which should increase as more votes are counted. Rep. Mark Amodei is expected to win easily over independent candidate Greg Kidd.

Harris Narrowly Edges Trump 48.5% to 48.2%  For the state legislature, the Democrats are poised to achieve a supermajority in the state Senate, needing just one more seat. They are likely to pick up the seat held by GOP Sen. Heidi Seevers O’Gara, as well as hold onto a key seat in the Assembly. However, the Assembly could remain closer, with the possibility of Democrats losing a seat or two, leading to a final count of 25 Democrats and 17 Republicans.

In local elections, I predict Shelley Berkley will be the next mayor of Las Vegas, though the race may be closer than expected with Victoria Seaman campaigning hard. For the ballot measures, I believe all but Question 3 (ranked-choice voting/open primaries) will pass. Although proponents have heavily campaigned for Question 3, the opposition has raised enough concerns about the potential chaos it could cause, and it may ultimately be defeated.