Bihar’s Electoral Alchemy: Can the NDA’s Rekindled Alliance Withstand the Undertow of Disruption? 

Based on past poll numbers, the NDA alliance in Bihar, while recently rejuvenated by a symmetric performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, faces a significant threat from a potential spoiler similar to 2020, when Chirag Paswan’s LJP drained nearly 10% of votes from JD(U) strongholds and exposed critical cracks in voter transferability; in the upcoming 2025 assembly election, the key question is whether the rebuilt cohesion between the BJP and JD(U) can withstand a comparable disruption from Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj party, whose estimated 8-10% vote share could again fracture the NDA’s base and decide dozens of tight constituencies, making the contest less about sheer victory and more about the alliance’s survival against volatile voter sentiment.

Bihar’s Electoral Alchemy: Can the NDA’s Rekindled Alliance Withstand the Undertow of Disruption? 

In the grand, chaotic theatre of Indian politics, no stage is more captivating or unpredictable than Bihar. Here, elections are not merely a contest of parties but a complex dance of caste calculus, personal loyalties, historical resentments, and the elusive chemistry between leaders and the led. As the state gears up for another high-stakes assembly election, the central question isn’t just about who will win, but whether the reigning alliance can survive the powerful undercurrents of a new political reality. 

For nearly two decades, the bedrock of stability in Bihar’s volatile polity has been the alliance between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)]. This partnership was a masterclass in political arithmetic. It combined the BJP’s disciplined urban and upper-caste base with Nitish Kumar’s meticulously crafted coalition of Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs) and women voters, a constituency he built through a relentless focus on governance, law and order, and affirmative action. When this equation held, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) seemed an impregnable fortress. But as the 2020 election revealed, that fortress has cracks. 

The 2020 Election: A Coalition in Name Alone 

On the surface, the 2020 result was an NDA victory. The coalition secured 125 seats in the 243-member assembly, a slim but workable majority. However, a deeper dive into the vote share data reveals a partnership in profound distress. 

The BJP, contesting 110 seats, secured a formidable 42.5% of the vote in those constituencies. In contrast, the JD(U), fighting 115 seats, managed only **32.83%**—a staggering gap of nearly 10 percentage points. This was unprecedented. In their most successful outings—2005 and 2010—their vote shares were separated by a hair’s breadth, less than 2%. Even in 2015, when Nitish Kumar was in alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the difference between his party’s vote share and Lalu Prasad’s was a manageable 3.7%. 

In coalition politics, this vote transfer gap is the most critical diagnostic tool. A difference beyond 4-5% signals a rupture, indicating that a significant chunk of one partner’s supporters refused to vote for the other’s candidate. By this measure, nearly one in ten BJP voters likely defected and withheld their support from JD(U) candidates. 

The beneficiary of this sabotage was clear. Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), which contested 135 seats and won only one, polled a remarkable 10.26% of the vote in those constituencies—a figure eerily close to the BJP-JD(U) gap. Chirag’s campaign, styled as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Hanuman” while openly targeting Nitish Kumar, acted as a spoiler. It surgically extracted votes from JD(U) strongholds, weakening Nitish while leaving the BJP’s tally relatively unaffected. It was a masterclass in controlled demolition, executed under the guise of loyalty to the national leadership. 

The 2024 Lok Sabha Revival: A Return to Symmetry 

The bitter aftermath of 2020 saw a humbled Nitish Kumar, whose authority was diminished by his dependence on a restive ally. The alliance fractured, with Nitish briefly rejoining the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) before dramatically returning to the NDA fold in January 2024. 

This reunion was put to the ultimate test in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The results were a surprise to many. The BJP and JD(U) won 12 seats each, with vote shares of 20.52% and 18.52% respectively. The balance was restored, echoing the synchrony of their heyday. The BJP’s calculation was astute: grant Nitish parity, allow him to take credit, and position Modi as the unifying national leader. In return, Nitish would deliver his crucial EBC and women voters, while Modi would energize the base. The arithmetic of caste and the chemistry of leadership realigned. 

The 2025 Conundrum: Prashant Kishor and the Ghost of 2020 

Just as the NDA has rediscovered its rhythm, a new disruptive force emerges, threatening to play the role Chirag Paswan did in 2020: Prashant Kishor and his Jan Suraaj party. 

Kishor is a unique entity in Indian politics—a backroom strategist who has now stepped onto the main stage. After launching Jan Suraaj on Gandhi Jayanti in 2024, his party contested four by-elections. While it didn’t win any, the results were telling. In Imamganj, Jan Suraaj polled over 37,000 votes, single-handedly denying the RJD a victory. Across the four constituencies, the party averaged a 10.13% vote share. 

That number—**10%**—should send a chill through the NDA camp. In Bihar, where over 50 seats are routinely decided by margins of fewer than 5,000 votes, a vote share of this magnitude is not just significant; it is lethal. It is the exact same share that Chirag Paswan secured to devastating effect. 

However, Kishor’s disruption differs from Chirag’s. He does not position himself as Modi’s disciple. His rhetoric is built on a platform of good governance, anti-corruption, and mobilizing Bihar’s vast youth population. This message is less likely to erode the RJD’s core Muslim-Yadav base and is instead poised to nibble at the edges of the NDA’s coalition—disillusioned non-Yadav OBCs, aspirational youth, and upper castes dissatisfied with the status quo. 

The Stakes and the Unknowable Variable 

The NDA thus approaches the 2025 election in a paradox of strength and vulnerability. 

• Its Strength: The Modi-Nitish combo has been reforged and proven effective in the 2024 national election. The partnership is once again one of equals, with a clear division of labor: Nitish manages the intricate caste arithmetic on the ground, while Modi provides the overarching national narrative and charismatic appeal. 

• Its Vulnerability: The specter of a 10% spoiler remains. Jan Suraaj may not win many seats, but it doesn’t need to. If it can replicate its by-election performance across the state’s 243 constituencies, it could siphon off enough votes from the NDA’s margin to cost it dozens of tightly contested seats, handing an advantage to the Mahagathbandhan. 

The ultimate question for 2025 is one of perception. Will Prashant Kishor be seen by voters as a genuine alternative, a viable third force offering a new kind of politics? Or will he be viewed as a mere disruptor, a protest vote that ultimately doesn’t translate into a governing mandate? The answer will determine the fate of Bihar. 

Conclusion: More Than Just Arithmetic 

Bihar’s elections are a reminder that politics is not a pure science but a form of alchemy. It transforms the base metals of caste data and voter demographics into the gold of electoral victory through the mysterious catalyst of human emotion, loyalty, and aspiration. 

The NDA has done its homework. It has corrected the arithmetic that failed it in 2020. But in 2025, it faces a new chemical agent: the promise of change from a political entrepreneur who understands the game as well as anyone. The battle for Bihar will be fought on two fronts: the visible stage of rallies and manifestos, and the invisible, subterranean level where voters make their most calculating decisions. The alliance that can master both the numbers and the narrative will ultimately hold the key to Patna’s power corridors.