Beyond the Hyphen: How India’s Economic Ascent Is Reshaping Global Partnerships 

India’s GDP growth trajectory, when compared to Pakistan, China, and the United States, reveals a story of ascending economic power that is strategically dismantling the long-standing international practice of “hyphenating” it with Pakistan. The data shows India has dramatically widened its economic lead over Pakistan, with its economy expanding from being 7.5 times larger in 2014 to 10.5 times larger in 2024, while simultaneously holding its ground against China by slightly narrowing the ratio of their economies from 5.4x to 4.8x over the past decade.

Furthermore, India is slowly gaining on the United States, reducing the US’s relative economic size from 8.6x to 7.5x. This collective economic momentum—demonstrating a clear upward trajectory alongside the US while Pakistan and China lose steam—provides the most potent, long-term foundation for India to achieve de-hyphenation, as a stronger economy directly translates into greater strategic autonomy and global capability.

Beyond the Hyphen: How India’s Economic Ascent Is Reshaping Global Partnerships 

Meta Description: A deep dive into India’s GDP growth trajectory against Pakistan, China, and the US reveals a story not just of economics, but of shifting global power dynamics and the strategic pursuit of “de-hyphenation.” 

Key Takeaways: 

• India has dramatically widened its economic lead over Pakistan, with its GDP now over 10.5 times larger. 

• Against the economic juggernaut China, India has held its ground, preventing the gap from widening and even narrowing it slightly over the past decade. 

• The United States has shown remarkable economic resilience, but India is slowly gaining ground, reducing the US’s relative economic size from 8.6x to 7.5x since 2014. 

• This economic rebalancing is India’s most potent tool in its quest for strategic autonomy on the world stage. 

The Geopolitical Shadow Behind the GDP Charts 

In the intricate theatre of global diplomacy, perceptions often shape realities. Recently, a spectre has haunted Indian foreign policy circles: the fear of renewed “hyphenation” with Pakistan. This diplomatic term describes the practice where a major power, like the United States, views its relationship with one country through the prism of its ties with a rival neighbour. For India, long striving to be assessed on its own formidable merits, this is a regressive prospect. 

In this context, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s recent statement cuts to the chase: “The best way of de-hyphenation is to outstrip the other party in terms of power and capability.” 

While military might and diplomatic clout are immediate levers of power, the most sustainable, long-term foundation of national capability is undeniably economic strength. It is here, in the cold, hard calculus of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), that we find the most compelling argument for India’s independent standing. An analysis of India’s growth trajectory relative to Pakistan, China, and the United States reveals not just an ascendant economy, but a nation fundamentally reshaping its geopolitical destiny. 

The Pakistan Comparison: From Rival to Radically Different Orbit 

Let’s begin with the most stark contrast. For decades, the India-Pakistan narrative was one of two similarly-sized economies locked in a zero-sum rivalry. Today, that framing is economically obsolete. 

The Data: In 2014, India’s economy was 7.5 times larger than Pakistan’s. By 2024, that multiplier had ballooned to 10.5 times. To put this in perspective, India’s economy has not just grown; it has added the equivalent of multiple Pakistans to its own GDP in a single decade. 

The Human and Strategic Insight: 

This isn’t merely a statistic; it’s a paradigm shift. The reasons for this diverging fate are a lesson in economic management: 

• Policy Consistency vs. Political Volatility: India, despite its challenges, has maintained a relatively consistent trajectory of economic liberalization and integration with the global economy. Its digital public infrastructure (the India Stack) and a unified goods and services tax (GST) are examples of foundational, albeit complex, reforms. 

• The Demographics Dividend vs. Debt Dilemma: India is leveraging its youthful population to fuel domestic demand and attract manufacturing. Pakistan, conversely, is caught in a vicious cycle of soaring public debt, political instability, and reliance on international bailouts, which force austerity and stifle growth. 

• The End of Equivalence: This widening gap makes the traditional hyphenation increasingly illogical. It is hard for any external power to view two countries as strategic equivalents when one’s economy is an order of magnitude larger and on a completely different growth plane. India is no longer competing with Pakistan; it is simply leaving it behind. 

The China Conundrum: Holding Ground Against the Juggernaut 

If the Pakistan comparison is about leaving a rival behind, the China story is about an impressive act of holding the line. 

The Data: In 2015, China’s colossal economy was 5.4 times the size of India’s. By 2024, this ratio had actually decreased to 4.8 times. This means that while China’s absolute growth in dollar terms remains massive, India has been growing at a pace that prevents the relative gap from expanding further. 

The Human and Strategic Insight: 

This is a critical, and often overlooked, achievement. China’s economic explosion from the 1990s through the 2010s was arguably the most dramatic in history. For India to not just survive but marginally close the gap in relative terms during this period speaks volumes. 

• The Scale of the Challenge: Catching up to China’s absolute GDP remains a distant, Herculean task. China’s head start, its dominance in global supply chains, and its technological advancements in areas like renewables and EVs present a formidable barrier. 

• India’s Resilience: India’s ability to keep pace is fueled by its massive domestic market, which provides a buffer against global shocks, and its success in attracting foreign investment seeking to diversify away from China (“China Plus One”). 

• A Tale of Two Transitions: China is now grappling with a slowing economy, a property crisis, and an aging population. India, while facing its own challenges with job creation and inequality, is still in a more youthful, pre-peak demographic phase. This divergence in economic cycles is a key reason the ratio is stabilizing. 

The US Benchmark: Gaining Ground on the Global Leader 

The most telling relationship, however, might be with the United States. Competing with Pakistan is one thing; holding your own against China is another. But slowly gaining on the world’s established economic superpower is the ultimate testament to long-term trajectory. 

The Data: In 2014, the US economy was 8.6 times larger than India’s. A decade later, that figure stands at 7.5 times. The US line on the chart is not collapsing—it’s a testament to American resilience—but the Indian line is rising to meet it. 

The Human and Strategic Insight: 

This trend dismantles several outdated narratives: 

• The “Unassailable Lead” Myth: It demonstrates that even the largest and most advanced economies are not immune to the laws of economic gravity and the rise of new powers. The US’s incredible post-pandemic performance, driven by strong consumer spending and tech innovation, has merely slowed India’s catch-up rate, not reversed it. 

• The Exchange Rate Reality: This comparison is in nominal US dollars, which includes currency fluctuations. A strengthening dollar often makes the US economy appear larger and others smaller. The fact that India is still gaining ground despite this headwind underscores the robustness of its underlying growth in real terms. 

• A Relationship Recalibrated: This economic convergence is the bedrock of the modern US-India strategic partnership. The relationship is increasingly moving from one of donor-recipient or patron-client to one of near-peers with shared interests. Trade tensions, like those recently observed, are a natural feature of such a complex, maturing relationship between two large, confident economies. 

Conclusion: The Inexorable Logic of Economic Gravity 

The graphs and data points ultimately tell a story of momentum. Among the four economies analysed, India and the United States are the ones on a discernible upward trajectory in relative terms. China, while still adding vast wealth, is seeing its explosive growth phase mature, and Pakistan is grappling with existential economic threats. 

For policymakers in Delhi and observers worldwide, the lesson is clear: Jaishankar’s prescription for de-hyphenation is being fulfilled not primarily in the diplomatic communiqués or military exercises, but in the silent, relentless churn of economic output. Every percentage point of GDP growth that outpaces rivals isn’t just a number for economists; it is a brick in the foundation of India’s strategic autonomy. 

The hyphen that once tightly bound India to Pakistan in the international imagination is being eroded, not by rhetoric, but by the inexorable logic of economic gravity. The world is gradually being forced to see India for what it is becoming: a massive, self-confident civilizational state whose economic weight is finally beginning to match its geopolitical aspirations.