Beyond the Brief Reprieve: Decoding North India’s Weather Shift and The Long, Hot Summer Ahead 

The recent spell of rain and cooler temperatures in North India, caused by a Western Disturbance, is ending as the weather system moves eastward, leading to a return of clear skies and a significant rise in temperatures starting February 19. While Delhi and the northwestern plains will experience sunny, warmer days with maximum temperatures climbing to 28°C, isolated rain or snow may persist in Uttarakhand, and a separate system will bring rain to the Andaman Islands. This shift marks the end of a brief reprieve from unseasonably warm weather and signals an early transition to summer, compressing the spring season. The rapid warming raises concerns for Rabi crops like wheat, which face forced maturity and reduced yields, while residents can expect misty mornings, warm afternoons, and a potential dip in air quality, underscoring a broader climatic shift where traditional seasonal boundaries are blurring.

Beyond the Brief Reprieve: Decoding North India’s Weather Shift and The Long, Hot Summer Ahead 

The weather in North India is telling a story of transition. After a brief cameo of grey skies and drizzle that offered millions a temporary escape from an unseasonably warm February, the script is being rewritten. As the Western Disturbance that played the role of an unlikely hero pulls eastward, it leaves behind a familiar protagonist: the blazing North Indian sun. 

While the news of “rain to recede” and “temperatures to rise” might sound like a routine meteorological update, the context of February 2026 makes this shift particularly significant. This isn’t just about packing away the umbrellas; it’s about understanding the rhythm of our changing seasons, the specific impacts on different regions, and what the immediate future holds for the people living in the shadow of the Himalayas and on the parched plains. 

This feature delves deep into the forecast, the science, and the human impact of the weather transition set to take hold from Thursday, February 19, offering insights that go beyond the daily bulletin. 

The Great Exit: The Western Disturbance Moves On 

For the past few days, parts of Northwest India, including the National Capital Region (NCR), Rajasthan, and Punjab, were under the influence of an active Western Disturbance. This weather system, essentially a storm that originates in the Mediterranean Sea and brings moisture to the Indian subcontinent, was responsible for the scattered showers, hailstorms, and the significant drop in day temperatures . 

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), this system is now making its exit. As it moves eastward, its influence over the northwestern plains is waning. The clouds that shrouded Delhi and its neighbouring states are dissipating, paving the way for the return of clear skies . 

Devendra Tripathi, founder of Mausam Tak and a weather vlogger for Kisan Tak, explained the mechanics of this shift, noting that the clouds are moving towards eastern India, and their intensity is diminishing as they travel . This marks the end of the recent spell of unsettled weather that provided a much-needed, albeit brief, respite from the mid-February heat. 

Delhi-NCR: A Tale of Two Extremes in One Week 

For residents of the capital region, the past week has been a meteorological rollercoaster. Earlier in the week, Delhi witnessed summer-like conditions, with the maximum temperature crossing the 31-degree Celsius mark on Monday and Tuesday—the earliest instance of temperatures breaching the 30-degree Celsius mark in February in the past five years . 

This sudden heat was then washed away by pre-dawn rain on February 18, which brought the maximum temperature down to a pleasant 21.1 degrees Celsius . However, this cool interlude is ending as abruptly as it began. 

Starting Thursday, February 19, Delhi is set to witness a “mainly clear sky,” though residents might wake up to a shallow layer of mist in the morning hours . The IMD has forecast a sharp rebound in temperatures. The maximum is expected to settle comfortably between 26 and 28 degrees Celsius, a jump of about 4-5 degrees from the previous day’s rain-cooled air . Minimum temperatures are likely to hover between 12 and 14 degrees Celsius . 

This warming trend is not just a return to normalcy; it is a surge above it. Weather analysts point out that despite the brief rain, temperatures across North India will remain one to three degrees Celsius above the seasonal average . The Centre’s Air Quality Early Warning System (EWS) has also noted that with clear skies and relatively low wind speeds, the Air Quality Index (AQI) in Delhi, which was recorded in the ‘poor’ category, may oscillate between ‘poor’ and ‘moderate’ in the coming days . 

Regional Breakdown: Where the Rain Lingers and Where the Heat Builds 

The weather on February 19 will present a classic Indian dichotomy: clear and warm in the plains, with isolated activity in the hills and far-flung islands. 

The Northwestern Plains: Dry and Warming Up 

For the vast stretches of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, the weather is set to stabilise. The hailstorm activity that raised concerns for farmers in parts of Rajasthan, particularly damaging to mustard crops in areas like Tonk, has ceased . The return of bright sunshine will be welcomed by many, but it also signals the resumption of the dry spell that has characterised much of this winter. 

The Western Himalayan Region: Isolated Showers Persist 

While the plains dry out, the mountains will not be completely done with the weather just yet. The IMD has indicated that isolated light rainfall or snowfall may continue in parts of the Western Himalayan Region, specifically in Uttarakhand, on February 19 . This is typical as the tail end of a Western Disturbance clears the hills, and while it won’t be a widespread event, it serves as a reminder that winter hasn’t entirely loosened its grip on the higher altitudes. 

The Andaman & Nicobar Islands: A Different System Takes Over 

Far away from the mainland’s northern drama, a separate low-pressure area over the Equatorial Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal is making its presence felt. This system, which is moving towards Sri Lanka, will bring isolated rainfall to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on Thursday . Tourists and locals in the archipelago can expect cloudy skies and a chance of light rain, especially during the night . 

A Deeper Dive: The Missing Spring and the Climate Context 

To view this weather transition in isolation would be to miss the bigger picture. February 2026 is not just another winter month; it is a stark indicator of a shifting climate norm. 

Earlier in the month, the IMD had already predicted a warm and dry February for Northwest India. The forecast was based on the expectation of fewer and less intense Western Disturbances . The brief spell of rain we just witnessed was an exception, not the rule. M. Mohapatra, Director General of IMD, had noted that day temperatures were expected to be high precisely because of the lack of strong Western Disturbances . 

Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Climate and Meteorology at Skymet Weather, had warned that this pattern indicates a “short spring” . The current weather shift confirms this. The cool, pleasant days that characterise the transition from winter to summer are being compressed. We are lurching from an unseasonably warm winter straight into the grip of an early summer. 

This has profound implications. For the Rabi crops, including wheat, barley, and mustard, this rapid rise in temperature is a cause for serious concern. The IMD’s agromet advisory has warned that crops may experience “forced maturity,” leading to sterile spikelets and chaffy grains, which ultimately results in yield reduction . The brief rain provided some moisture relief, but the returning heat could accelerate growth cycles too quickly, leaving farmers with a poor harvest. 

What This Means for You: A Practical Outlook 

As the rain recedes and the sun takes charge, here’s a practical look at what the next few days hold for different aspects of daily life. 

For the Commuter and Morning Walker 

The misty mornings predicted for Delhi-NCR mean that commuters should brace for slightly reduced visibility during the early hours, but the days will be bright and sunny. The cold, dry winds from the hills will continue to flow across the Indo-Gangetic plains, ensuring that mornings and nights remain pleasantly cool, even as the afternoons get warmer . It is the perfect weather for layering—a light jacket for the morning that can be discarded by noon. 

For the Traveller and Pilgrim 

If you are planning a trip to the hills, particularly Uttarakhand, be prepared for isolated rain or snow on February 19 . While this is not expected to cause major disruptions, it could lead to slippery roads in higher reaches. Conversely, for those heading to the tourist spots of Rajasthan or the historical sites of Delhi and Agra, the clear skies will offer excellent visibility for sightseeing, though the afternoons will be warm . 

In the south, however, the story is different. Travellers heading to Kerala, Tamil Nadu, or the Andaman Islands should stay alert. The weather system in the Bay of Bengal is predicted to bring heavy rainfall and squally weather to the southern peninsula from February 20 onwards, which could disrupt travel plans and marine activities . 

For the Farmer 

This is the most critical window. With minimum temperatures expected to rise by 2-3 degrees Celsius over the next seven days , farmers in the wheat belt of North India need to be vigilant. The sudden warmth can stress the crops. Experts advise monitoring fields for signs of pest attacks, as warmer conditions can favour the rapid multiplication of aphids and other sucking pests on oilseeds and pulses . 

For the Health-Conscious 

The fluctuating temperatures—from the chill of the rain to the abrupt warmth—can take a toll on the human body. Such transitions often lead to an increase in viral infections, coughs, and colds. The return of dry weather also means a potential dip in air quality, as calm winds fail to disperse pollutants . It is advisable to stay hydrated and maintain immunity. 

The Final Forecast: A Glimpse into the Weekend 

The warming trend set in motion on Thursday is not a one-day affair. The IMD has forecast a gradual rise in maximum temperatures by two to four degrees Celsius over Northwest India during the next seven days . 

By the weekend, Delhi’s mercury is likely to approach the 31-degree Celsius mark once again . The hills of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand are expected to remain largely dry, with day temperatures rising there as well . 

Meanwhile, South India is bracing for a deluge. The low-pressure area that is merely brushing the Andamans will intensify, bringing heavy rainfall to Kerala and Tamil Nadu on February 21 and 22 . 

Conclusion: Embracing the New Normal 

As the rain recedes across North India on Thursday, it does more than just clear the skies; it clears the illusion of a lingering winter. The weather on February 19, 2026, is a marker of a broader climatic shift where the traditional seasons are blurring at the edges. 

The return of clear skies and the rise in temperatures are not just numbers on a forecast chart. They are a lived reality for the farmer worried about his wheat, the city dweller bracing for an early summer, and the tourist navigating a nation of stark weather contrasts—from the snow-dusted peaks of Uttarakhand to the sun-baked plains of Delhi, and the rain-lashed coasts of the south. 

As we put away our umbrellas and seek out the shade, one thing is clear: the brief reprieve is over, and the long, warm march towards summer has begun.