India’s Migration Shift: Five Years After Covid, Where Are Workers Going?

The Covid-19 pandemic led to a massive reverse migration in India, with millions of workers returning to villages, facing severe hardships such as job losses, food insecurity, and lack of healthcare and education. However, many have since moved back to cities due to rural job shortages and low wages. Climate change is also emerging as a major factor forcing migration. Urban migration remains strong, with 40% of India’s population expected to live in cities by 2026. International migration patterns have shifted, with more Indians now moving to Europe and Africa, while healthcare workers and students are among the fastest-growing migrant groups.

Government schemes like e-Shram and ONORC aim to support migrants but face challenges in implementation. Despite widespread job losses, remittances remained stable, helping migrant families survive. A major issue is the lack of reliable migration data due to the delayed 2021 Census, and current labor surveys do not fully capture long-term migration trends. India needs better migration policies, backed by accurate data, to ensure sustainable workforce management and social security for migrants.

India’s Migration Shift: Five Years After Covid, Where Are Workers Going?

The Covid-19 pandemic dramatically altered migration trends in India. During the first lockdown in 2020, over 44 million people left cities for villages, followed by another 26 million during the second lockdown. Most were low-income workers—daily wage earners, short-term laborers, or seasonal employees—who lost their jobs, struggled with food shortages and healthcare gaps, and even faced social stigma. Their families, who depended on their earnings, also plunged into financial distress.

Five years later, many of these workers have returned to cities. Rural areas failed to generate sufficient employment, and while government schemes like the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) provided temporary relief, they could not replace stable incomes. Low wages, limited opportunities, and climate change—making farming increasingly unpredictable—continue to drive people toward urban centers. Experts predict that by 2026, 40% of India’s population will reside in cities, spurred in part by projects like the Smart Cities Mission. These initiatives aim to develop modern urban hubs but rely heavily on migrant labor for construction, services, and informal sector jobs.

Global Migration Shifts

The pandemic also disrupted the lives of Indian workers abroad. Many lost their jobs, faced salary cuts, or endured poor living conditions in overcrowded dormitories. Despite these hardships, remittances—the money sent home—remained stable, providing crucial financial support for families.

International migration patterns are evolving. While Gulf countries remain key destinations for low-skilled jobs, more Indians are now exploring opportunities in Europe. Programs like the EU Blue Card, which offers visas to skilled professionals, have made countries like Germany attractive. Additionally, non-traditional destinations such as Malta, Georgia, and Eastern European nations are witnessing increased interest.

Migration to Africa is also on the rise, driven by job opportunities in IT, healthcare, and manufacturing. However, risks persist, as seen in the recent case of 47 workers from Jharkhand stranded in Cameroon due to inadequate safeguards for migrants.

Healthcare professionals and students are fueling new migration trends. Indian nurses and doctors are in high demand globally, while student migration has surged post-pandemic. For instance, Kerala saw the number of students studying abroad double from 1.29 lakh in 2018 to 2.5 lakh in 2023. Families are making significant investments in foreign education, with spending reaching $3.1 billion in 2021. Events like the Russia-Ukraine war, which left many Indian students stranded, have exposed the vulnerabilities of this trend.

Policy Gaps and the Road Ahead

India’s migration challenges call for stronger policies. In 2021, the government launched the e-Shram portal to register informal workers and provide benefits such as insurance and food subsidies. However, limited awareness and digital access have slowed its adoption. Similarly, the One Nation One Ration Card (ONORC) scheme, designed to allow migrants to access food rations anywhere in India, has faced implementation issues.

Another major hurdle is the lack of reliable data. The delay of the 2021 Census and reliance on outdated surveys make it difficult to track migration accurately. The 2020-21 Labour Force Survey recorded a slight rise in migration rates (28.9% compared to 28.5% in 2008), but data collected during the pandemic may not reflect current realities.

Looking ahead, India must implement policies that protect migrants’ rights, enhance access to welfare programs, and address climate-induced displacement. Improved data collection, awareness campaigns for existing schemes, and international collaborations to safeguard workers abroad are crucial steps. Without these measures, millions will continue to face uncertainty in their pursuit of livelihoods.

In summary, migration remains a lifeline for India’s workforce, but systemic support is essential to transform this challenge into an opportunity.