U.S. Crude and Gasoline Stocks Rise as Distillate Inventories Decline

U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles likely increased last week, while distillate inventories saw a decline. Analysts estimated a crude stock rise of 2.2 million barrels and a distillate drop of 3.5 million barrels. Refinery utilization rates were expected to remain steady at 85%.

U.S. Crude and Gasoline Stocks Rise as Distillate Inventories Decline

U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories likely increased last week, while distillate stockpiles saw a decline, according to a preliminary Reuters poll conducted ahead of the official reports. Analysts surveyed expected crude inventories to have risen by approximately 2.2 million barrels for the week ending February 14.

Due to the President’s Day holiday on Monday, the release of inventory data has been postponed by a day. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is set to publish its findings at 4:30 p.m. ET (2130 GMT) on Wednesday, while the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the data arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, will release its official report at 12:00 p.m. ET (1700 GMT) on Thursday.

In the previous reporting period ending February 7, the EIA disclosed that crude oil stockpiles had surged by 4.1 million barrels to 427.9 million barrels, surpassing analysts’ expectations, which had forecasted a 3-million-barrel rise. The current estimates indicate a more moderate increase in crude reserves.

gasoline inventories increased by around 800,000 barrels last week, in contrast to the prior week’s drop of 3 million barrels. Meanwhile, distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, were expected to decline by about 3.5 million barrels. In the previous week, distillate inventories had risen slightly by 100,000 barrels.

Refinery utilization rates, which measure the percentage of total refining capacity in operation, were anticipated to remain unchanged at approximately 85% last week, according to the survey.

Breakdown of the Reuters Forecast and Previous Data:

Crude Oil:

• Expected change for the week ending February 14, 2025: Increase of 2.2 million barrels
• Actual change reported for the week ending February 7, 2025: Increase of 4.1 million barrels, reaching 427.9 million barrels
• Previous week’s change: Increase of 3.5 million barrels
• Change in the same week a year ago (week ending February 16, 2024): Increase of 3.5 million barrels

Distillates:

• Expected change for the week ending February 14, 2025: Decline of 3.5 million barrels
• Actual change for the week ending February 7, 2025: Increase of 100,000 barrels, reaching 118.6 million barrels
• Previous week’s change: Decline of 4 million barrels
• Change in the same week a year ago: Decline of 4 million barrels

Gasoline:

• Expected change for the week ending February 14, 2025: Increase of 800,000 barrels
• Actual change for the week ending February 7, 2025: Decrease of 3 million barrels, reaching 248.1 million barrels
• Previous week’s change: Decrease of 300,000 barrels
• Change in the same week a year ago: Decrease of 300,000 barrels

Refinery Utilization Rates:

• Expected change for the week ending February 14, 2025: No change (steady at 85%)
• Actual change for the week ending February 7, 2025: Increase of 0.5 percentage points
• Previous week’s change: No change

Additionally, analysts provided their individual forecasts for inventory changes:

• Price Futures Group projected a 2-million-barrel increase in crude inventories and a 2-million-barrel rise in gasoline and distillate stockpiles, with no change in refinery runs.
• Ritterbusch estimated crude stockpiles to grow by 2.2 million barrels, while distillate inventories were expected to drop by 3.5 million barrels, and gasoline to increase by 800,000 barrels. Refinery utilization was expected to rise by 0.3 percentage points.
• Rystad Energy anticipated a significantly larger crude oil increase of 6.6 million barrels, with distillate inventories declining by 4.3 million barrels and gasoline stocks falling by 1.1 million barrels. Refinery utilization was projected to decrease by 0.6 percentage points.

On a related note, natural gas storage levels were forecasted to decline between 193 billion cubic feet (bcf) and 185 bcf, based on four different estimates.