Gold Prices Volatile Amid U.S. Election Uncertainty, Medium-Term Outlook Positive – $2,700 Support Tested

Gold prices are fluctuating around $2,737, driven by uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election results and rising Treasury yields. Support levels are at $2,700, with resistance near $2,750. While short-term volatility is expected, gold remains fundamentally strong in the medium to long term.

CONTENTS:

• Gold drops as USD strengthens.
• Manappuram Finance reports unexpected profit growth.
• Gold declines amid election and Fed uncertainty.
• GBP/USD bullish, EUR/USD uptrend, CAD/JPY rallies.
• Gold prices steady, silver declines slightly.
• Gold dips ahead of US election, silver subdued.
• Gold faces resistance, GBP/USD bearish, EUR/USD bullish, CAD/JPY rallies.
• Gold pressured by stronger USD, rising yields.
• Gold volatile amid election uncertainty, outlook positive.

Gold Prices Volatile Amid U.S. Election Uncertainty, Medium-Term Outlook Positive – $2,700 Support Tested

Gold drops as USD strengthens

Gold Prices Volatile Amid U.S. Election Uncertainty  Gold prices have dropped to a multi-week low, as the US Dollar rallies to a four-month high following early exit poll results in the US election. Former President Donald Trump leads the race, which has triggered a surge in the USD, weakening gold (XAU/USD). The rise in US Treasury yields, driven by concerns over deficit spending and expectations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve, further pressures the price of gold. A strong “risk-on” sentiment, marked by a rally in US equity futures, has also contributed to the decline in gold.

The current electoral results show Trump leading with 227 electoral votes, while Vice President Kamala Harris has 189. Trump’s strong performance in key swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, combined with the Republicans securing control of the Senate, has sparked optimism in the markets. As a result, the US 10-year Treasury bond yield surged to its highest level since July, pushing gold prices lower.

Gold Prices Volatile Amid U.S. Election Uncertainty  Despite global tensions, including concerns over Iran’s plans for retaliation against Israel, gold continues to face downward pressure. Technically, gold could find support around $2,690, with further declines possible if it breaks below the $2,720–$2,725 support zone. On the upside, $2,748–$2,750 could act as resistance, with a breakout above this level potentially driving gold back toward higher prices around $2,780–$2,785.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar strengthened significantly against other major currencies, with the biggest gains against the Euro.

Manappuram Finance reports unexpected profit growth

Gold Prices Volatile Amid U.S. Election Uncertainty  Manappuram Finance reported an unexpected 2% growth in its second-quarter net profit, reaching Rs 571 crore for the period ending September 30. Analysts had anticipated a decline, expecting a profit of Rs 531 crore. The growth was primarily driven by strong performance in the company’s core gold loan business, which saw a 21% increase in revenue to Rs 1,856 crore, accounting for around 70% of total revenue. The surge in domestic gold prices during the quarter boosted loan growth, as higher bullion prices raised the value of collateral, attracting more customers seeking loans.

In addition to gold loans, the company also saw a 22.6% growth in microfinance loans, totaling Rs 781 crore, which contributed nearly 30% of its revenue. The company’s total assets under management grew by 17.4% to Rs 45,700 crore, and net interest income rose by a similar 17.4%.

Gold Prices Volatile Amid U.S. Election Uncertainty  However, the company also faced challenges, with provisions for bad loans jumping 117.5% to Rs 260 crore. This increase in provisions was particularly linked to impairments in its Asirvad Micro Finance unit, which saw a rise of 121.8%. Concerns in the microfinance sector have led to higher provisions for other lenders like IndusInd Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank as well. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India had barred Asirvad Micro Finance from disbursing loans due to concerns over high interest rates and excessive mark-ups.

Despite these challenges, Manappuram Finance’s shares rose 4% ahead of the earnings report.

Gold declines amid election and Fed uncertainty

Gold Prices Volatile Amid U.S. Election Uncertainty  Gold prices declined in the domestic futures market on Tuesday morning due to weak spot demand and subdued global market cues. Investors remained cautious ahead of two major events later in the week—the US election on November 5 and the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision on November 7. As a result, MCX Gold for the December 5 expiry traded 0.11% lower at ₹78,336 per 10 grams around 9:45 AM.

In international markets, gold prices also saw a drop as investors waited for the outcome of the US election and the Fed’s decision. A close race between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican nominee Donald Trump has added uncertainty, as the final result could take days to confirm. Additionally, while the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, this move is already priced in and may not significantly impact gold prices.

Given the uncertainty surrounding the election, market sentiment is expected to remain mixed, with gold likely trading in a range between ₹78,000 and ₹79,000 on MCX. Once the election results are known, gold could see a significant move of ₹1,000–₹1,500 in either direction. Key support levels are at ₹78,000–₹77,800, and resistance is seen around ₹79,000–₹79,175.

In global markets, gold has support at $2,734–$2,722 per troy ounce, with resistance at $2,762–$2,778. Silver has support at $32.40–$32.00 and resistance at $32.84–$33.20 per troy ounce. On the MCX, gold’s support levels are ₹78,200–₹77,950, with resistance at ₹78,660–₹78,850, while silver has support at ₹93,600–₹92,850 and resistance at ₹94,950–₹95,600. Analysts suggest staying out of the bullion market for now due to the upcoming election uncertainty. Gold is expected to trade within a range of ₹77,600–₹78,600 with a negative bias.

GBP/USD bullish, EUR/USD uptrend, CAD/JPY rallies

Gold Prices Volatile Amid U.S. Election Uncertainty  The GBP/USD pair is showing a new bullish momentum, approaching the $1.3000 level. However, as long as the price remains below this level, the bearish correctional trend is expected to stay active for today. The first major target for the pair is at $1.2866. The anticipated trading range for today is between support at $1.2860 and resistance at $1.3040.

The EUR/USD pair is continuing its upward movement, gradually moving away from the $1.0865 level. This supports the expectation of a continued bullish trend for the day, driven by a positive signal from the stochastic indicator. Key targets are $1.0930 and $1.0985, with these levels achievable if the price stays above $1.0865. The expected trading range for today is between support at $1.0810 and resistance at $1.0970.

The CAD/JPY pair has benefitted from the consolidation near the 109.15 support level, forming bullish waves and settling near 109.75. Positive momentum from the stochastic indicator suggests a rally towards the 110.35 level. A break above this level could lead to further gains, with targets at 110.70 and 111.20. The expected trading range for today is between 109.20 and 110.35, with a bullish trend forecasted.

Gold prices steady, silver declines slightly

Gold Prices Volatile Amid U.S. Election Uncertainty  Gold prices remained steady on Tuesday, with the price of 24-carat gold in Delhi at ₹80,573 per 10 grams. The price of 22-carat gold is ₹73,823 per gram, both unchanged from the previous day. Over the past week, the price of 24-carat gold has seen a slight increase of 0.07%, but it has decreased by 3.4% over the past month. Silver remains at ₹100,100 per kg, also unchanged.

In Delhi, the gold rate is ₹80,573 per 10 grams today, which is the same as yesterday and slightly lower than the ₹80,633 per 10 grams recorded last week. Silver in Delhi is priced at ₹100,100 per kg today, the same as yesterday, but lower than last week’s price of ₹102,200 per kg.

In Chennai, the gold rate remains at ₹80,421 per 10 grams, unchanged from yesterday and slightly lower than last week’s price of ₹80,481 per 10 grams. Silver in Chennai is priced at ₹108,700 per kg, the same as yesterday but down from ₹110,800 per kg last week.

In Mumbai, the gold rate is ₹80,427 per 10 grams today, unchanged from yesterday but slightly lower than last week’s rate of ₹80,487 per 10 grams. The silver rate in Mumbai is ₹99,400 per kg, unchanged from yesterday and lower than last week’s price of ₹101,500 per kg.

Gold Prices Volatile Amid U.S. Election Uncertainty  In Kolkata, the gold rate is ₹80,425 per 10 grams today, the same as yesterday but lower than last week’s price of ₹80,485 per 10 grams. Silver in Kolkata is priced at ₹100,900 per kg today, the same as yesterday but lower than last week’s ₹103,000 per kg.

As of now, February 2025 gold futures on the MCX are trading at ₹78,856 per 10 grams, reflecting a slight decline. March 2025 silver futures are trading at ₹96,640 per kg, down by ₹102. Gold and silver prices are influenced by a variety of factors, including global demand, currency fluctuations, interest rates, government policies, and the strength of the US dollar.

Gold dips ahead of US election, silver subdued

Gold Prices Volatile Amid U.S. Election Uncertainty  Gold prices dipped in the domestic futures market on Tuesday morning due to weak demand in the spot market and subdued global cues. Investors are holding back ahead of two significant events this week: the US election on November 5 and the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision on November 7. By 9:45 am, MCX Gold for the December 5 expiry was trading 0.11% lower at ₹78,336 per 10 grams.

Internationally, gold prices also saw a decline as investors remained cautious due to uncertainty surrounding the US election results. Polls indicate a close race between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump, with the outcome possibly remaining unclear for several days after the election.

Market participants are expecting mixed sentiment leading to a range-bound session for gold, between ₹78,000 and ₹79,000 on MCX. Once the election results are announced, gold may experience a significant move, ranging between ₹1,000 and ₹1,500. Key support levels for gold are between ₹78,000 and ₹77,800, while resistance is seen between ₹79,000 and ₹79,175.

Gold has support at $2,734–$2,722 and resistance at $2,762–$2,778 per troy ounce. Silver has support at $32.40–$32.00 and resistance at $32.84–$33.20 per troy ounce. On the MCX, gold has support at ₹78,200–₹77,950 and resistance at ₹78,660–₹78,850, while silver has support at ₹93,600–₹92,850 and resistance at ₹94,950–₹95,600.

Gold Prices Volatile Amid U.S. Election Uncertainty  Analysts suggest staying away from the bullion markets today due to the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential elections. Gold is expected to trade within a range of ₹77,600 to ₹78,600 with a negative bias. Support for gold is at ₹78,000–₹77,700, and resistance is between ₹78,450 and ₹78,650.

Silver is expected to trade between ₹93,800 and ₹94,700, with a sideways to bearish bias.

Gold faces resistance, GBP/USD bearish, EUR/USD bullish, CAD/JPY rallies

Gold Prices Volatile Amid U.S. Election Uncertainty  Gold prices are currently showing positive movement, approaching a critical resistance level at $2,746.00. Caution is advised as the price must remain below this level to maintain the bearish correction scenario. If this resistance is breached, the market could shift to a bullish trend. The negative targets, however, remain at $2,718.80, extending to $2,697.00 if the price breaks the initial support.

For today, the expected trading range is between $2,710.00 support and $2,745.00 resistance.

Trend forecast: Bearish

Meanwhile, GBPUSD is showing a bullish bias, nearing the $1.3000 level. As long as the price stays below this threshold, the correctional bearish trend will persist. The initial target is $1.2866.

Today’s expected range for GBPUSD is between $1.2860 support and $1.3040 resistance.

Trend forecast: Bearish

EURUSD is continuing its positive trend, moving away from the $1.0865 level. Stochastic indicators suggest a continuation of the bullish momentum, with targets at $1.0930 and $1.0985. Maintaining a level above $1.0865 is essential for achieving these targets.

Today’s expected range for EURUSD is between $1.0810 support and $1.0970 resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish

Gold Prices Volatile Amid U.S. Election Uncertainty  For CADJPY, the price has been supported by consolidation near the 109.15 level and is now forming bullish waves. Positive momentum from stochastic suggests further upside, with the next target at 110.35. If this resistance is surpassed, additional gains toward 110.70 and 111.20 are expected.

The expected trading range for CADJPY today is between 109.20 and 110.35.

Gold pressured by stronger USD, rising yields

Gold Prices Volatile Amid U.S. Election Uncertainty  Gold prices are facing pressure due to a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields, which have reduced demand for safe-haven assets like XAU/USD. Early U.S. election results showing a lead for Republican candidate Donald Trump in key swing states have contributed to the dollar’s strength, further weighing on gold. As a result, gold struggles to gain momentum, trading around $2,710, with key support levels being tested near $2,700 amid a bearish market sentiment.

The U.S. dollar reached its highest level in almost four months, buoyed by early election results and increasing expectations of a pro-business stance under Trump. Additionally, rising U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.44%, have made gold less appealing as investors shift to assets offering higher returns.

With inflationary pressures expected to rise from Trump’s policies, and a broader “risk-on” sentiment taking hold across markets, investors are moving towards equities and bonds, further reducing demand for gold. The metal’s failure to hold above $2,735 highlights the market’s growing appetite for riskier assets.

Gold Prices Volatile Amid U.S. Election Uncertainty  Gold is expected to face continued selling pressure if it remains below $2,725, with immediate support levels at $2,701, followed by $2,692 and $2,684. Resistance is seen around $2,725, with further barriers at $2,743 and $2,752. The 50-day and 200-day EMAs are also above the current price, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

The recent sharp decline and a bearish engulfing candle suggest that gold could see further downward movement. As long as prices stay below $2,725, the bearish trend is likely to persist, with limited signs of a reversal.

Gold volatile amid election uncertainty, outlook positive

Gold Prices Volatile Amid U.S. Election Uncertainty Gold prices are expected to remain highly volatile in the near term due to uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election results. As of the latest report, spot gold was steady at $2,737, fluctuating between $2,725 and $2,750. The MCX December gold contract was trading at ₹78,452, showing a slight gain of 0.04%.

The U.S. Dollar Index stood at 103.57, down nearly 0.30%, while U.S. Treasury yields spiked in response to the ISM services report. The ten-year yield rose to 4.358%, up about 1.70%, and the two-year yield increased to 4.23%, rising by 1.50%. The ISM services index came in at 56, surpassing expectations, with employment and prices paid both showing strong results.

Upcoming U.S. economic data include unit labor costs and weekly jobless claims, with the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50-4.75% on November 7. Similarly, the Bank of England is expected to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%.

Global gold ETF holdings have decreased slightly to 83.857 million ounces, and U.S. Mint sales of American Eagle gold coins were 25,000 ounces in October, slightly lower than September’s 27,000 ounces.

Gold Prices Volatile Amid U.S. Election Uncertainty  The election results may lead to a boost in gold prices, especially if Trump wins. His return to power could escalate U.S.-China trade tensions, increasing gold’s appeal due to its role as a hedge against geopolitical risks and inflation. However, an initial drop in gold prices is possible due to concerns over fiscal deficits, U.S. yields, and the dollar rising. It is advised to buy on dips as gold remains fundamentally strong in the medium to long term.

In contrast, if Kamala Harris wins, gold might face downward pressure as her economic policies are expected to be less inflationary and more focused on sustainable growth with lower borrowing.

Overall, gold is expected to be volatile, but it is likely to perform well in the medium to long term, regardless of the election outcome. Support levels are at $2,700, $2,685, and $2,600, while resistance is seen at $2,760, $2,800, and $2,850.