French Election Gridlock Adds Further Uncertainty to Europe

The French election results have left Europe facing heightened uncertainty due to political gridlock, complicating governance and potentially stalling EU-wide initiatives.

CONTENTS: French Election Gridlock Adds Further Uncertainty to Europe

• French election outcome: Relief, instability, EU concerns
• French leadership crisis, EU implications
• EU leadership uncertain amid political challenges
• EU faces leadership void, stagnation fears
• French election impact on EU
• French presidency’s strength in Europe

French election outcome: Relief, instability, EU concerns

French Election Gridlock Adds Further Uncertainty to Europe

The outcome of the French election brought mixed feelings to the EU. A senior EU diplomat expressed relief, stating that the worst-case scenario had been averted in Brussels on Sunday night. Despite initial fears after the first round of voting, where the far-right National Rally was predicted to potentially secure a parliamentary majority, they ultimately finished third.

This outcome, with the left-wing alliance and Emmanuel Macron’s centrists leading, was welcomed by mainstream pro-Europeans, who were pleased that Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella did not take control of the French parliament.

However, the positive outcome for the EU in France is overshadowed by political instability. Neither France nor Germany, the EU’s key players, managed to secure a parliamentary majority, plunging both countries into a period of uncertainty. This political gridlock could persist for months, potentially harming the EU as a whole.

An anonymous EU diplomat expressed concern, noting that if political disagreements stall progress in Paris and Berlin, Europe could face significant challenges. Emmanuel Macron has played a crucial role in shaping European policies, influencing the EU’s trade agenda, advocating for a stronger industrial defense strategy, and promoting strategic autonomy, especially in light of potential future geopolitical shifts like a second term for Donald Trump.

French leadership crisis, EU implications

The French president now faces internal challenges that weaken his leadership and divert attention from broader issues. The fragmented parliament makes it unlikely that any resulting government will be stable in the long term.

Looking ahead, French politicians are already considering the 2027 presidential election, influencing their decisions from now on. The alliance between mainstream and leftist parties to prevent a far-right majority may not be replicated, potentially paving the way for a far-right president in 2027.

Célia Belin from the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations highlighted that a new French government is likely to prioritize domestic issues over foreign policy. However, ongoing political divisions and difficulties in governance will diminish France’s influence both within Europe and on the global stage.

Manfred Weber, president of the European People’s Party, criticized Emmanuel Macron on social media, arguing that instead of clarifying France’s political situation, Macron’s actions have led to confusion and bolstered extreme political positions.

Expressing concern over anti-EU sentiments from both the far left and far right, Weber emphasized the need for a strong democratic alternative, pointing to Les Républicains as a potential stabilizing force. Les Républicains, affiliated with the EPP, secured just over eight percent of the vote in the recent French election.

A senior French official highlighted a pressing concern related to finances, noting uncertainty about passing the finance bill amidst the current political climate. There’s also apprehension about potential EU actions, such as triggering an excessive deficit procedure against France.

EU leadership uncertain amid political challenges

French Election Gridlock Adds Further Uncertainty to Europe: France’s internal political deadlock would be more manageable for the EU if Germany, its key partner in the Franco-German engine, was functioning well. However, Germany is also facing challenges. Following disappointing European election results where the coalition parties collectively garnered only 31 percent of the vote, Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently navigated a crisis by securing a draft budget for 2025, temporarily averting government collapse.

Despite surviving this ordeal, Scholz’s coalition troubles leave him with little capacity to exert leadership on the European stage, even if he had expressed such intentions. This situation adds to the overall complexity and uncertainty within the EU’s political landscape.

Mujtaba Rahman, Europe head of the Eurasia Group, a risk consultancy, highlighted concerns about leadership in Europe amid the current challenges in Germany and France.

Rahman noted that Emmanuel Macron has been a strong advocate for greater ambition, coherence, and a more significant geopolitical role for Europe. However, with Macron now weakened by domestic political distractions and the necessity to form a government, Rahman suggested it would be difficult for him to sustain this leadership role. Macron is likely to have reduced capacity to drive ambitious European agendas and may play a less prominent role on the European stage as a result.

EU faces leadership void, stagnation fears

French Election Gridlock Adds Further Uncertainty to Europe: Mujtaba Rahman emphasized that both Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk are dealing with significant domestic challenges, limiting their ability to take a leading role in Europe. He also pointed out that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s effectiveness depends heavily on the strength of her key stakeholders, leaving a potential leadership void in the EU.

Regarding the EU’s ambitions over the next five years, the outlook is concerning. In France, anticipated policy infighting amid a hung parliament is expected to impede economic and fiscal reforms. This prospect is worrisome for the European Commission and other financially conservative EU member states.

A second EU diplomat expressed apprehension about potential stagnation due to the political deadlock in France, highlighting concerns over economic reforms stalling, national debt increasing, and overall political paralysis intensifying as a result.

French election impact on EU

French Election Gridlock Adds Further Uncertainty to Europe: European diplomats and officials are currently assessing the potential impact of the French election results on policy discussions within the Council of the EU, where ministers from all member states negotiate on various issues.

Had the far-right won, it could have posed challenges for EU policies, such as support for Ukraine or handling migration, particularly if far-right French ministers aligned with Viktor Orbán’s government in Hungary. However, with a fragmented French parliament, it’s uncertain which EU agendas Paris will prioritize and how effectively it can advocate for them.

Emmanuel Macron has been a leading advocate for a European capital markets union to facilitate investment across the EU, akin to the U.S. model. Despite past challenges, there’s renewed momentum for this reform amid the EU’s focus on competitiveness. The question now is whether a politically weakened France can still champion such crucial reforms.

A senior EU diplomat expressed concerns about the clarity and direction of France’s EU agenda, noting a shift towards more left-leaning positions amidst internal discussions. Despite this, France’s diplomatic machinery remains formidable, supported by checks and balances like the Senate, Macron’s leadership, and the French administration and diplomacy, which temper radical demands from the National Assembly.

French presidency’s strength in Europe

French Election Gridlock Adds Further Uncertainty to Europe: Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala expressed confidence that despite Emmanuel Macron’s weakened position, the French presidency holds significant executive power within the European context, historically being one of the strongest in Europe. Fiala referenced past periods of cohabitation as evidence of the French system’s resilience.

Another European diplomat acknowledged the unprecedented nature of the current situation in France but emphasized that clear executive authority is expected to emerge, particularly concerning European issues. They noted optimism that the new French government, once formed, will generally align on key European policy matters.

A third diplomat in Brussels underscored a prevailing sense of relief that the far-right did not emerge victorious in France. They praised France for renewing its parliament with a pro-European majority, which they viewed as a strong affirmation of France’s commitment to European integration.