5 Stocks That Survived the LAST Crash (and Will Again)

The Indian stock market experienced significant declines following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates while maintaining a hawkish outlook. This triggered a global market sell-off, impacting various sectors in India. Despite concerns about the Fed’s stance and FII outflows, some sectors like IT and exports may benefit.

CONTENTS:

• Fed cut triggers market sell-off in India
• Indian stocks tumble amid Fed concerns and FII outflows
• Indian stocks plunge on Fed’s hawkish rate cut view
• Indian stocks tumble on Fed’s hawkish rate cut signal
• Indian stocks dip on December 18th, led by sectoral weakness
• Indian stocks fall again, FIIs sell, rupee weakens.
• Fed cut boosts India, rupee stabilizes, growth outlook improves
• MobiKwik IPO debuts strong, Sai Life Sciences lists moderately
• Indian stocks slip, Fed decision awaited, energy prices mixed

5 Stocks That Survived the LAST Crash (and Will Again)

Fed cut triggers market sell-off in India

5 Stocks That Survived the LAST Crash  The Indian stock markets experienced significant declines following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 4.5%, coupled with a hawkish outlook on future rate changes. The Sensex dropped over 1,100 points, and the Nifty fell below 24,000, with all broader market indices trading in the red. This decline was triggered by concerns over a stronger US dollar, which could lead to foreign portfolio investment (FPI) outflows from Indian equities. Additionally, a weaker rupee could worsen India’s trade deficit and increase inflation due to higher import costs.

The Fed’s updated forecast includes a 2.5% inflation rate and a 2.8% core inflation estimate for 2025, while GDP growth for 2024 was upgraded to 2.5%. This signals a “higher-for-longer” policy approach to combat persistent inflation. The decision has sparked a global market sell-off, with the Dollar Index reaching a two-year high. The stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated assets more attractive, putting pressure on emerging markets like India.

Experts caution that sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as real estate, autos, and capital goods, may face challenges. However, industries like IT and export-driven sectors could benefit from the stronger dollar. Investors are advised to remain cautious, avoid panic selling, and focus on fundamentally strong stocks with minimal exposure to global factors.

Indian stocks tumble amid Fed concerns and FII outflows

5 Stocks That Survived the LAST Crash The Indian stock market has experienced a significant decline, with the Sensex falling nearly 1,200 points and Nifty dropping to 23,870 on December 19, 2024. This downturn follows four consecutive days of losses, resulting in nearly ₹13 lakh crore being wiped out from the market capitalization of BSE-listed firms. Several key factors are driving this market slump:

1. US Federal Reserve’s Rate Outlook: Although the Fed’s recent 0.25% interest rate cut aligned with expectations, its revised outlook of fewer rate cuts in 2025 (only two more quarter-point cuts) spooked global markets. This caused a sharp sell-off, including a significant drop in US indices and a surge in the US dollar.
2. Foreign Capital Outflows: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been actively selling Indian equities, amounting to over ₹8,000 crore in the past three days. The strengthening dollar, rising bond yields, and the Fed’s slower pace of rate cuts have further deterred foreign investment.
3. Rupee Depreciation: The Indian rupee hit a historic low of 85.3 per dollar, dampening investor sentiment. A weaker rupee discourages foreign investment, as it erodes returns when converting back to foreign currencies. It also increases inflation by making imports more expensive, leading to tighter monetary policies that negatively impact markets.
4. Macroeconomic Challenges: India’s trade deficit has reached a record high, deepening concerns over the country’s economic stability. Additionally, India’s GDP growth has slowed for the third consecutive quarter, highlighting weakening economic momentum.
5. Earnings Recovery Uncertainty: Despite expectations for earnings recovery in Q3 and Q4, weak earnings in Q1 and Q2 have led to concerns. Investors are cautious, as the recovery in earnings remains uncertain and any significant rebound in corporate profits could take time.

These factors have combined to create a volatile market environment, with experts urging caution until there is clarity on economic and earnings recovery.

Indian stocks plunge on Fed’s hawkish rate cut view

5 Stocks That Survived the LAST Crash The Indian stock markets saw a sharp decline on December 19, 2024, following the US Federal Reserve’s indication of fewer rate cuts in 2025. By 10:30 AM, the Sensex had dropped by 880 points to 79,301, and the Nifty was down 269 points at 23,969. Both indices have lost over 3% this week, marking their first weekly decline in five weeks.

All 30 blue-chip stocks on the BSE and NSE were in the red, with key losers including Asian Paints, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Kotak Bank, JSW Steel, Infosys, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tech Mahindra, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank. Smallcaps, midcaps, and all 13 major subsectors also saw declines.

The sell-off was triggered by the Fed’s conservative outlook, projecting only two 0.25% rate cuts in 2025, rather than the three or more rate cuts that investors had anticipated. This cautious stance, combined with concerns over persistent inflation and a strong US economy, dampened investor sentiment globally. As a result, US stocks, commodities like gold and silver, emerging market currencies, and Indian equities were all affected, leading to a “risk-off” sentiment in the markets.

Indian stocks tumble on Fed’s hawkish rate cut signal

5 Stocks That Survived the LAST Crash Indian stock markets saw a sharp decline on December 19, 2024, with the BSE Sensex falling over 900 points and the NSE Nifty dropping below 24,000. This downturn was largely due to global market reactions to the US Federal Reserve’s announcement of fewer interest rate cuts next year, leading to widespread losses across key sectors. The Nifty and Sensex indexes saw a significant pullback, with IT, power, and metal sectors under pressure.

Notable losers included Asian Paints, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance, JSW Steel, and Infosys. Meanwhile, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories and Tata Consumer Products were among the few gainers.

The global impact of the US Fed’s cautious stance resulted in weaker performance in the US stock market and Asian markets, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix dropping significantly. The Indian Rupee also weakened, trading at 85.05 against the US dollar.

In sectoral updates, gold prices fell by 0.9%, while Borosil Renewables announced plans to expand its production capacity in India amidst challenging market conditions in Europe. Other noteworthy developments included ITC increasing its stake in Oberoi Hotels, Lupin receiving FDA approval for a new drug, and Asian Paints seeing the resignation of two senior management executives.

Indian stocks dip on December 18th, led by sectoral weakness

5 Stocks That Survived the LAST Crash On December 18, 2024, the stock market experienced declines, with the Sensex falling by 502.25 points (0.62%) to close at 80,684.45, and the Nifty losing 137.15 points (0.56%), settling at 24,336.0. The Nifty reached a high of 24,394.45 and a low of 24,149.85 during the session. The midcap and small-cap indices underperformed, with the Nifty Midcap 50 dropping 0.66% and the Nifty Small Cap 100 falling by 0.87%. The performance of the Nifty 50 in the past week showed a decrease of 1.84%, but a 3.14% increase over the last month.

Top Gainers and Losers:

Nifty Index:

• Top Gainers: Trent (+2.48%), Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories (+2.22%), Cipla (+1.49%), Wipro (+1.21%), Bajaj Auto (+0.69%).
• Top Losers: Tata Motors (-3.08%), Power Grid Corporation of India (-2.50%), Bharat Electronics (-2.19%), NTPC (-2.09%), JSW Steel (-2.07%).

Sensex:

• Top Gainers: Wipro (+1.25%), Reliance Industries (+0.64%), Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (+0.63%), Tata Consultancy Services (+0.55%), Tech Mahindra (+0.50%).
• Top Losers: Tata Motors (-3.03%), Power Grid Corporation of India (-2.56%), NTPC (-2.09%), ICICI Bank (-1.46%), State Bank of India (-1.31%).

Midcap and Small Cap Indices:

• MidCap 50 Gainers: Aurobindo Pharma, Supreme Industries, Lupin, Alkem Laboratories, IDFC First Bank.
• Small Cap 100 Gainers: Radico Khaitan, Honasa Consumer, Tata Teleservices Maharashtra, IIFL Finance, Global Health.

BSE and NSE:

• BSE Gainers: Akzo Nobel India (+6.87%), K P R Mill (+5.04%), Eid Parry India (+4.93%), Godrej Industries (+4.72%).
• NSE Gainers: Kfin Technologies (+7.51%), Concord Biotech (+5.55%), Mankind Pharma (+5.42%), K P R Mill (+5.15%).
• BSE Losers: Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corporation (-6.89%), Piramal Enterprises (-6.30%), NMDC (-6.09%), PVR Inox (-5.73%).
• NSE Losers: Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corporation (-6.64%), Piramal Enterprises (-6.31%), NMDC (-6.10%), PVR Inox (-5.76%).

Indian stocks fall again, FIIs sell, rupee weakens

5 Stocks That Survived the LAST Crash On December 18, 2024, Indian equity markets experienced a decline for the third consecutive session, as both the Sensex and Nifty closed lower due to foreign fund outflows. The Sensex fell by 502.25 points (0.62%) to 80,182.20, and the Nifty dropped 137.15 points (0.56%) to 24,198.85. The market weakness was attributed to continued selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), who offloaded utility, capital goods, and metal stocks. Analysts are awaiting the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, with a 25 basis point rate cut anticipated, but the focus is on the accompanying commentary.

The Indian rupee also slid, closing at a record low of 84.94 against the US dollar, due to import demand, foreign fund outflows, and weak domestic equity trends. On the stock front, there were announcements of IPOs, including Senores Pharmaceuticals and Unimech Aerospace, as well as news from Shriram Finance, which raised $1.277 billion through an External Commercial Borrowing (ECB) loan.

Stocks like Tata Motors, Power Grid, and BEL saw declines, while Dr Reddy’s, Trent, and Cipla emerged as top gainers. On the global front, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision is expected to influence both domestic and international markets.

Fed cut boosts India, rupee stabilizes, growth outlook improves

U.S. and Indian Economic Overview Amid Global Developments

5 Stocks That Survived the LAST Crash The Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut signals a shift toward a more accommodative stance to stabilize the U.S. economy, amid easing inflation and rising geopolitical risks. Projections for 2025 will provide insight into the Fed’s long-term strategies for managing economic growth and inflation, with market attention focused on Jerome Powell’s perspective on inflation, labor dynamics, and geopolitical tensions.

Geopolitical Context: The Fed’s policy decisions occur against a backdrop of geopolitical risks, notably in the Middle East and a potential U.S. presidential leadership change, which may influence future monetary policy.

Impact on the Indian Economy:

1. Capital Flows & Currency Volatility: A Fed rate cut is likely to weaken the U.S. dollar, attracting capital inflows into emerging markets like India and stabilizing the rupee after recent fluctuations.
2. Trade & Export Dynamics: A weaker dollar can enhance the competitiveness of Indian exports, especially in IT services and pharmaceuticals. However, subdued global demand, as indicated by the Fed’s projections, could affect overall export performance.
3. Inflationary Pressures: The influx of foreign capital and a stable rupee could alleviate imported inflation, particularly in oil and commodities, easing fiscal and current account pressures.
4. RBI Policy Response: The new RBI Governor is likely to align India’s monetary policy with global trends. A Fed rate cut may prompt India’s central bank to maintain or even accelerate an accommodative stance, potentially leading to a rate cut in early 2025 to support domestic demand.

Broader Implications for India:

1. Stock Market Outlook: Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) may increase their investments in India’s equity markets due to higher returns offered by emerging markets amid a weakening U.S. dollar. Rate-sensitive sectors like banking, real estate, and infrastructure could benefit from lower borrowing costs.
2. Geopolitical Sensitivity: Geopolitical tensions, particularly those impacting crude oil prices, remain a risk that could undermine the benefits of a softer dollar.
3. Policy Continuity Under New RBI Leadership: The incoming RBI Governor will need to balance growth support with inflation management, while navigating external financial risks stemming from the Fed’s monetary policy.

Conclusion: The Fed’s rate cut may ease liquidity and stabilize the rupee, benefiting the Indian economy. However, the new RBI Governor will face the challenge of balancing domestic growth, inflation control, and managing global financial pressures, with markets closely monitoring India’s policy adjustments in 2025.

MobiKwik IPO debuts strong, Sai Life Sciences lists moderately

MobiKwik IPO
5 Stocks That Survived the LAST Crash MobiKwik, a digital payment platform, saw an impressive 57.71% gain on its debut, opening at ₹440 compared to its issue price of ₹279. The IPO was subscribed 125.69 times, reflecting significant investor interest despite its high valuation in a competitive fintech sector. The company’s recent shift to profitability and the rise of digital payments helped boost market confidence. Investors are advised to lock in profits, but those holding may consider setting a stop loss around ₹400.

Sai Life Sciences IPO
5 Stocks That Survived the LAST Crash Sai Life Sciences, a company involved in small-molecule drug development, listed with a moderate 18.40% gain, opening at ₹650 against its issue price of ₹549. The IPO was subscribed 10.27 times, showing reasonable investor interest despite concerns over its valuation and the high proportion of the offer for sale (OFS). While the company’s financials are positive, the IPO’s limited use of proceeds could dampen long-term sentiment. It’s recommended to book profits at this point, with a stop loss at ₹585 for those holding.

Market Updates (December 18, 2024)

5 Stocks That Survived the LAST Crash

• Kalpataru Projects International raised ₹1,000 Crore through QIP; shares are down 1.72% at ₹1,315.25.
• The Nifty index opened lower at 24,298 and was at 24,250, down 0.3%. Dr Reddy’s Laboratories was the top gainer, while Power Grid was the biggest loser.
• Markets showed cautious trading as investors await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.
• WTI futures declined despite a decrease in US crude inventories.
• Vishal Mega Mart’s shares debuted strong at ₹104, marking a 33% premium over its IPO price of ₹78.
• MobiKwik’s shares opened at ₹440, marking a 57% premium over its IPO price of ₹279.
• The Indian Rupee dipped to a record low of 84.9375 against the US Dollar.

Overall, investors are cautious with mixed performances across IPOs and the broader market, with geopolitical tensions and upcoming policy decisions influencing sentiment.

Indian stocks slip, Fed decision awaited, energy prices mixed

5 Stocks That Survived the LAST Crash

• Inox Wind secured a 60 MW order from Serentica Renewables, with its stock trading flat at ₹194.20.

• Gensol Engineering bagged a 22 MW ground-mounted solar PV project worth ₹88 crore from a steel products company in Punjab.

• Top Stocks in Focus:
  1. VA Tech Wabag: Tender for a 300 MLD Desalination Plant cancelled (negative impact).
  2. Edelweiss: RBI removed restrictions on subsidiaries ECL Finance and Edelweiss ARC (positive).
  3. RITES: Awarded consultancy services for Meerut Development Authority (positive).
  4. Ambuja Cement: Announces merger with Sanghi and Penna Cements (positive).
  5. Route Mobile: Proximus Group integrates BICS, Telesign, and Route Mobile (positive).

• Market Overview:
  • The Sensex slipped 88.98 points to 80,595.47, and the Nifty 50 was down 21.90 points to 24,314.10.
  • Brent crude futures edged up to $73.22, while WTI traded lower at $69.67.
  • Domestic markets are expected to open weak with a potential volatile trading day, particularly ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

• Bonus and Dividend Updates:
  • Rajeshwari Cans will issue a 1:1 bonus, with ex-bonus date on December 19, 2024.
  • Bambino Agro will distribute a dividend of ₹1.60 per share with ex-dividend date on December 19.

• Global Markets:
  • Investors are keeping an eye on the Federal Open Market Committee’s interest rate decision and economic projections, which could influence global and Indian markets.