5 Key Issues Shaping the 2024 Presidential Race in Swing States

As the 2024 presidential race tightens between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, key swing states like Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania emerge as battlegrounds where local concerns significantly influence voter decisions. The economy tops the list of issues, with rising costs of living, immigration, crime, and reproductive rights also playing crucial roles. Both candidates are strategically addressing these topics to connect with voters and secure vital electoral support.

CONTENTS:

• Battleground states crucial election outcome.
• Key states crucial for victory.
• Economy, housing, immigration, reproductive rights.

5 Key Issues Shaping the 2024 Presidential Race in Swing States

Battleground states crucial election outcome

5 Key Issues Shaping the 2024 Presidential Race in Swing States As the U.S. presidential election approaches with voting set to begin soon, the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is highly competitive, with polls showing them in a near tie across several pivotal states.

In this election, the outcome hinges on a few key states out of 50, as most are securely aligned with either the Democratic or Republican parties. According to U.S. media reports, only seven states are genuinely competitive, and these will likely determine the winner. The decisive states include Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina, with Pennsylvania being especially crucial as the largest and most significant battleground.

The close margins mean that factors such as voter turnout and last-minute opinion shifts could play a decisive role. Polls show a tight race in key swing states essential for securing electoral votes. For example, surveys indicate that Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona are essentially tied.

Recent polls show Harris with a slight edge over Trump in some surveys. A HarrisX/Forbes poll puts her at 49% against Trump’s 48%, while a PBS News/NPR/Marist poll shows her leading 51% to 47%. Meanwhile, other polls, such as those from NBC News and Emerson College, report both candidates tied at 49%.

5 Key Issues Shaping the 2024 Presidential Race in Swing States  In Iowa, Harris holds a slight lead of 47% to 44%, attributed to strong support among female voters. In Michigan, her campaign is focusing on urban areas, aiming to consolidate support among diverse groups. Conversely, Trump maintains strong backing in Georgia and North Carolina, emphasizing economic concerns like inflation and government spending.

Both candidates are heavily investing efforts in Pennsylvania, a state where Trump has historically seen strong support. His rallies, highlighting themes of economic recovery and border security, appeal to key voter groups.

The seven most critical states this year include Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, along with Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. Historically, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin formed a Democratic “blue wall,” but Trump’s narrow wins in these states in 2016 played a major role in his victory over Hillary Clinton. However, Joe Biden reclaimed these states in 2020, while also securing unexpected wins in traditionally Republican-leaning Georgia and Arizona.

Key states crucial for victory

5 Key Issues Shaping the 2024 Presidential Race in Swing States  The 2024 presidential election is far from a typical race, and it certainly isn’t akin to a student council election. The stakes are higher, and the process more complex. Although Kamala Harris is 60 and Donald Trump is nearing 80, the focus is on more than their ages; it’s on the path to the presidency, which doesn’t hinge on the popular vote but on securing 270 electoral votes through the Electoral College. This is something Democratic figures like Hillary Clinton and Al Gore understand well.

This year, the contest will likely come down to five main states: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with Arizona potentially playing a role as a sixth. These states have shown the tightest polling and hold at least 10 electoral votes each, making them critical.

Currently, Harris is projected to have a solid lead in areas amounting to 226 electoral votes, including Washington, DC, and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Trump, meanwhile, appears to have about 219 electoral votes leaning his way. These numbers take into account states where either candidate leads by 5 points or more.

Unpredictable results remain possible, as shown by a recent poll from the *Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa*, which put Harris ahead of Trump 47% to 44% in a state Trump won comfortably in 2016 and 2020. If this poll reflects the broader trend, Harris could be positioned to succeed in key battlegrounds and reach the 270-vote threshold.

5 Key Issues Shaping the 2024 Presidential Race in Swing States  Harris has a potentially smoother path to victory compared to Trump. Winning Michigan (15 electoral votes), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10) would secure her 270 votes. Polls indicate a narrow advantage for Harris in Michigan and Wisconsin, with Pennsylvania showing a tie. These three states are familiar ground for Democrats; they were narrowly lost by Clinton in 2016 but recaptured by Joe Biden in 2020. Harris appears to be holding up well among White voters, crucial in these states, compared to Biden’s 2020 performance.

Nevertheless, polls aren’t foolproof, and Trump could still win one or more of these states. If Trump were to win one, Harris would need another state to reach 270 electoral votes. North Carolina, which has voted within a 5-point margin for the past four elections and has 16 electoral votes, could be that state. Recent averages show Trump leading by about a point in North Carolina, but it remains competitive.

Georgia, also with 16 electoral votes, could serve as a substitute if Harris loses Michigan or Wisconsin. While Biden won Georgia in 2020 and lost North Carolina narrowly, this year’s polling indicates Trump leading Georgia by 1-2 points, making North Carolina potentially more attainable for Harris. Since both states have similar demographics reliant on Black and college-educated voters, a polling error in one might be reflected in the other.

Arizona, with 11 electoral votes, is Trump’s strongest battleground based on recent polling, where he leads by about 2 points. Although it remains close, Arizona’s electoral value isn’t enough on its own for Harris to compensate for losses in larger states like Michigan or Pennsylvania. Nevada, with just 6 electoral votes, is less influential despite tight polling.

Ultimately, while unexpected outcomes could occur, the 2024 election will most likely come down to these five pivotal states—perhaps six, with Arizona as a potential decider.

Economy, housing, immigration, reproductive rights

5 Key Issues Shaping the 2024 Presidential Race in Swing States  As the 2024 presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump narrows, all eyes are on the key swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—where voters’ concerns will significantly influence the outcome. While these states share broad national concerns, some issues resonate more locally.

Key Issues:

1. The economy tops voters’ concerns across the swing states. Factors include growth rates, employment levels, consumer confidence, and inflation. Recent polling by ABC News/Ipsos shows that 44% of Americans feel worse off since President Joe Biden took office, marking one of the most negative outlooks since 1986. Additionally, 59% believe the economy is worsening, compared to only 23% who think it’s improving. Among those who view the economy negatively, Trump has a 53-point lead over Harris (74% to 21%).

2. The rising costs of groceries, gasoline, and housing are central to voters’ economic concerns. In Nevada and North Carolina, housing affordability has become especially pressing. North Carolina’s median home price increased from $193,200 (2017-2019) to $280,600 (2020-2022), the seventh-largest percentage rise nationally. Similarly, Nevada has experienced a 34% rise in home values since Biden’s presidency began.

3. In Pennsylvania, fracking is a crucial local issue, tying economic growth to environmental impacts. This issue influences voter perspectives, aligning with broader concerns about job security and energy independence.

4. Immigration is especially significant in Sun Belt states like Arizona and Nevada. Arizona, being a border state, has seen both Harris and Trump address immigration during campaign stops. Trump has been vocal about border security, linking immigration to economic strain and crime. In Nevada, where 28% of the population is Hispanic or Latino, immigration has high visibility.

5. Crime is another topic Trump has emphasized, often tying it to immigration in campaign narratives despite statistics indicating that U.S. citizens commit crimes at higher rates than undocumented immigrants. This messaging strategy appeals to voters’ safety concerns.

6. Since the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, abortion rights have become a pivotal issue. Democrats have highlighted this issue, capitalizing on it during the 2022 midterms to prevent a Republican surge. Harris’ campaign continues to stress reproductive rights as key to mobilizing undecided voters. In battlegrounds like Arizona and Nevada, ballot measures to protect abortion rights are further energizing this debate. Wisconsin, where the legal status of abortion was contested following the reversal of Roe, has seen heightened attention on this issue, underlined by the state’s historical 1849 abortion ban.

Candidate Strategies:
5 Key Issues Shaping the 2024 Presidential Race in Swing States  Both Harris and Trump have aimed to connect their messaging back to the economy. Trump often frames immigration and crime as issues that impact jobs and economic security. Harris, in turn, continues to promote economic stability while emphasizing reproductive rights to rally her base.

In sum, while the economy remains the dominant issue influencing swing-state voters, other factors such as housing costs, immigration, and reproductive rights play critical roles in shaping voter decisions.