2024 Election: 3 Shocking Predictions That Could Change Everything!

• Harris expected to narrowly win Nevada.
• Harris expected to win Nevada narrowly.
• Predictions suggest close election outcomes.

2024 Election: 3 Shocking Predictions That Could Change Everything!

Harris expected to narrowly win Nevada

2024 Election: 3 Shocking Predictions Political analyst Jon Ralston predicts that Vice President Kamala Harris will narrowly win Nevada in the upcoming election, largely due to support from independent voters. In a blog post, Ralston, who is also the editor of The Nevada Independent, forecasts that Harris will defeat former President Donald Trump by a margin of 48.5% to 48.2%, with 3.3% going to other candidates.

Ralston emphasizes that the key to this election lies in how non-major-party voters will cast their ballots, as they now represent a plurality in the state. He estimates that they will make up about 30% of the electorate and believes that if enough of them support Harris, she will secure a victory.

2024 Election: 3 Shocking Predictions  Despite noting the strong Republican turnout in early voting—where over 37,000 more Republicans participated than Democrats—Ralston argues that many nonpartisan voters are likely to lean Democratic, as they were intentionally registered as nonpartisans by Democratic-aligned groups. He believes that these voters will ultimately be mobilized to support Harris, along with women motivated by abortion rights and some crossover votes.

Polling data suggests that Nevada is currently a competitive battleground, with various sources showing a close race. A poll from The New York Times and Siena College indicates Harris has a 3-point lead over Trump among likely voters, with strong support from women. However, other polls show Trump leading among independents, highlighting the complexity of the electoral landscape in the state. Overall, Nevada is viewed as a “toss-up” as both candidates prepare for the election.

Harris expected to win Nevada narrowly

2024 Election: 3 Shocking Predictions  Renowned political forecaster Jon Ralston predicts that Vice President Kamala Harris will narrowly win Nevada with 48.5% of the vote compared to former President Donald Trump’s 48.2%, while 3.3% of voters will select “none of these candidates.” Ralston, who is the CEO and editor of The Nevada Independent and has a perfect record in predicting presidential outcomes in the state, described this election as “the hardest since I started doing this.”

His forecast aligns with a tight race reflected in recent polls. FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average shows Trump with a slight 0.4-point lead. In the latest Emerson College/The Hill poll, both candidates are tied at 48%, while a New York Times/Siena poll indicates Harris is ahead by 3 points. Additional surveys, including the Cooperative Election Study, show Harris leading by 4 points, whereas a CNN/SSRS poll has Trump up by 1 point.

Despite Trump’s recent advantage in mail-in ballots, Ralston suggests that independents—who constitute a plurality in Nevada—will ultimately swing toward Harris. He cites a new law that automatically registers voters as nonpartisan at DMVs as a factor that could benefit her campaign. Ralston also notes that young voters might cast their ballots later, which could further influence the outcome.

2024 Election: 3 Shocking Predictions  Nevada is a crucial swing state with only six electoral votes and has consistently voted for Democratic presidential candidates since 2008. In 2020, President Joe Biden won the state by 2.4 points over Trump. Voter dynamics in Nevada show that 30% identify as independents, and Ralston believes their support will be pivotal for Harris.

As for the voting process, Nevada will not release results until polls close at 10 p.m. EST, and while mail-in ballots can be counted prior to Election Day, a law allows those postmarked by Election Day to be counted if received by November 9, potentially extending the counting period. Most voters in Nevada cast their ballots by mail.

Additionally, Ralston highlights a decline in support for Harris among Latino voters, a key demographic in Nevada, where about 30% of the population identifies as Hispanic or Latino. Although Harris has a lead among Latino voters in some polls, she is facing challenges, particularly among Latino men, who are showing stronger support for Trump. In response, the Harris campaign has launched initiatives aimed at appealing to Hispanic men, including a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.

Predictions suggest close election outcomes

2024 Election: 3 Shocking Predictions  I should have wrapped things up in 2022 after correctly predicting the outcomes of the top two races, both of which were incredibly close. That should have been the perfect conclusion to my career as a political forecaster. But instead, here I am again.

Typically, I begin these prediction pieces by reminding you of my past successes—like predicting Harry Reid in 2010, Dean Heller in 2012, and the victories of Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden in 2016 and 2020. I do this to hopefully fend off any criticism if I’m wrong this time. But trying to satisfy the inevitable naysayers on social media is pointless, given the current climate of extreme polarization and the backlash against differing viewpoints.

Once you establish a tradition, it’s hard to stop it out of fear of making a mistake. I’ve never missed predicting a presidential election in Nevada, though I have stumbled on down-ballot races. This upcoming election is particularly challenging, which I’ll explain shortly. My forecasts are based on early voting data, historical trends, insights from sources on both sides, and my instincts. I believe it’s important to provide reasoning behind my predictions.

2024 Election: 3 Shocking Predictions  At their core, elections revolve around numbers, and this year’s math is perplexing. Typically, Democrats build a strong lead in populous Clark County, helping to counter losses in the 15 predominantly red counties, while Washoe County often determines the overall winner. However, this cycle, with former President Donald Trump encouraging Republicans to vote early and by mail, the GOP has gained a significant early voting advantage. As I write this, Republicans have over a 43,000 ballot lead.

I won’t repeat my earlier analyses, but my assessment is that Trump likely holds a 30,000 raw vote advantage right now. My hypothesis is that many mail ballots favor Democrats and the GOP’s early voting strategy may affect their Election Day turnout, potentially allowing some Democrats to win while others might fall short. Which candidates will succeed?

I see the potential for various outcomes across the board, but I trust the Democratic machine, which has consistently delivered wins for the last four presidential elections, to mobilize enough ballots in the coming days. Everything hinges on how independent voters align with Vice President Kamala Harris and whether the Democrats can effectively retrieve ballots. If they can’t, Trump could take the win, along with possible upsets in down-ballot races.

2024 Election: 3 Shocking Predictions  Predicting close races can be daunting, but after nearly four decades of covering politics, I’ve learned to embrace a bit of craziness.

President: I’ve dubbed this election The Unicorn Election due to the unique voting trends. It’s challenging to predict the outcomes based on mail ballots and Election Day turnout, especially with many Republicans voting early. Both parties believe this election will be close. Historically, tens of thousands of mail ballots are still to be counted, and the key question is whether Democrats can catch up. It’s essentially a coin toss, with analysts from both sides unable to reach a consensus. The pivotal factor this year is how independent voters will cast their ballots, as they now constitute a significant portion of the electorate. If they lean toward Harris, she’ll likely win Nevada.

Many might assume that the Republican gains in voter registration negate the Democrats’ automatic voter registration efforts at the DMV. However, I don’t believe that’s the case. There are numerous independents who lean Democratic but are registered as nonpartisans, and the party knows how to mobilize them. This will help counter the Republican lead, combined with increased turnout among women motivated by abortion rights and crossover voters from that issue. While some might see this as influenced by my dislike for Trump, I assure you it’s based on data and experience.

My instincts tell me the Democrats will catch up, but it’s important to note that the winner may not be clear on Election Night. Expect a very close race. Prediction: Harris 48.5%, Trump 48.2%, others and None of These Candidates 3.3%.

Senate: I believe Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) has run an exemplary campaign this cycle. She has been proactive in raising funds and effectively attacking her opponent, Sam Brown, particularly on the issue of abortion. Brown struggled to gain traction after securing the GOP nomination, largely due to his alignment with Trump and more extreme factions. The national GOP chose Brown because their candidate pool in Nevada is weak, and he has never held office before. I doubt the polls that show Rosen with a significant lead; that’s not typical for Nevada Senate races. However, I predict she will win, possibly with a decisive margin. Prediction: Rosen 50%, Brown 45%, others and none of the above 5%.

House: The three Democratic incumbents in the southern congressional districts should not face close races. The Republicans have fielded second-tier candidates who can’t compete with the incumbents’ fundraising. Representatives Dina Titus, Steven Horsford, and Susie Lee are all likely to win, but the races might be tighter than expected. Titus faced a smaller margin against Mark Robertson in 2022, Lee only won by 4 percentage points, and Horsford’s race against John Lee was also closer than anticipated.

The Democrats currently have slim leads in these districts, but the outstanding votes in Clark County are likely to lean Democratic. If any of these races end up being within 5 percentage points, they will likely be targeted in 2026. Rep. Mark Amodei should easily win against nonpartisan challenger Greg Kidd.

Legislature: The prevailing belief has been that the Democrats would achieve a supermajority in the state Senate while the Assembly would remain split. This is largely due to structural factors like gerrymandering. The Democrats need to gain one seat in the Senate, and it seems they will take over the seat of outgoing GOP Sen. Heidi Seevers O’Gara, who is trailing with a significant deficit. I predict Democratic Assemblywoman Angie Taylor will defeat Michael Ginsburg. The Democrats hoped to unseat GOP Sen. Carrie Buck, but I believe she will hold her ground.

The race for the final seat comes down to Democratic Sen. Dallas Harris and Republican Lori Rogich. Although the Democrats have a narrow lead, I think Harris will manage to win as more Democratic votes are counted. The Senate could shift from 13-8 to 14-7 in favor of the Democrats. In the Assembly, Team Lombardo must retain all Republican seats and flip one to avoid a supermajority. Despite some analysts suggesting the Democrats could achieve a supermajority, I ultimately believe they will fall short, resulting in a 28-14 outcome.